I figure it must be pretty cool in Vermont, the way those robins have their feathers fluffed up. Wonder if therapod dinosaurs fluffed their feathers the same way when it was cold. The probably did, I suppose.
Well, better get to bed. Still hopeful about Michigan. Gotta leave for Sandy Eggo dark and early Thursday, returning well after nightfall. A very interesting alleged DUI case--I think the Public Defender has a considerable advantage over the DA. BTW, there was a very gratifying result in a civil case I had in Alaska (go ahead, kid, blow your own horn)--a strange combination of circumstances, the likes of which I hadn't ever seen in the same case before. I think I helped to save the bacon of a very deserving medical provider. I don't know the details, because the settlement isn't public record. But I can feel good about it.
That may have something to do with it. Most people are aware of her long-ago connection to the state, although (as I mentioned before) she has had little connection as an adult. But I find it hard to believe that is a major factor for such a large fraction of the voters.
Off on something of a tangent: It is my opinion and only my opinion, mind you, that where black politicians are concerned they are afraid to change allegiance to Bernie because the Clintons are powerful and they fear reprisals in case of an HRC victory in the general. I really can't otherwise account for there not being more black support for Bernie.
I did see a video that included a very stirring speech by Jessee Jackson Jr., and I know some younger black entertainment figures and such are for Bernie. But I recall an article several weeks ago discussing South Carolina in which one of the statewide black politicians essentially said just that, namely the Clintons had been good to him and his ilk and it would be imprudent to support Sanders, no matter what his personal preference might be. Says a lot for the Clintons if you ask me.
Democrats Abroad global presidential primary voting has concluded; results will be available when votes are tallied on March 21st. There are reports of record-breaking participation.
I read this morning that a large, perhaps record, turnout is anticipated in Michigan, but haven't had a chance to check reports.
GRAND RAPIDS, MICH. - Polling places are busy on this primary election day in Michigan, with some locations reportedly running out of ballots. Multiple callers at Plainfield Township precinct No. 3 -- the Ambrose Ridge Apartments -- told WZZM that Democratic ballots have run out. Voters there were told more would be available within an hour. Turnout is proving to be high across West Michigan. County clerks in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties tell WZZM that polling places are the busiest they have seen in a primary election in decades.
I looked at the electoral map from 2012. The majority of the states that Hillary has won so far went to Romney in 2012. She's winning Red States. Is that going to help her?
Most of her delegates are from Red states that will vote Republican in the general election. But don't notice that, because the DNC is sure she's the one they need to crown, because after all she's entitled. Never mind that the polls show Bernie is the one who can beat the Republicans.
I had noticed the same thing, although not in such detail, Susan. It seems she can do little better than pull about even with Bernie outside the Confederacy.
As of now (53% reporting in Michigan) Bernie continues to hold his lead, which has been varying between about 2% and 5% from the get-go. Very few counties have reported 100%, and there are probably absentee ballots yet to be counted. Not yet time to break out the bubbly.
Time for me to head for the barn; will be back later.
It would help her if she actually won those states in the general. But, as Listener and Alan point out, this is unlikely.
It is true that the media is now saying she could beat Trump... not saying much considering word has been for months that Bernie could beat any Republican candidate. *sigh*
Well, yes. Clinton won Mississippi. Big time. But with 65% of the vote counted, Bernie leads in Michigan by about 3%. Not bad for somebody who was supposed to lose by upwards of 5%.
Incidentally, I wore my Bernie pin to the Disability Pride Parade committee meeting tonight. And as we were discussing fundraising, there was mention of the very small amounts Bernie asks for. $3 time 5 million contributions ...
I keep giving away my pins, but will see if they have anymore at HQ when I (finally!) go back to volunteer there soon. If they do, Cat, I'll pick one up for you. If they have both kinds, would you prefer white or light blue?
CNN is truly shameless. They called MS for HRC with 0% of the vote counted. They called MS for Trump with 49% of the vote counted. With 84% of the vote counted, and Bernie having been ahead continuously all night long, they still haven't called it for Bernie. They can't even bring themselves to say "Sanders is ahead in MI". Instead they say "A tight race in MI." Give me a break!
Michigan primary Last updated Mar 8, 2016 at 11:32 PM ET Mar 8130 delegates 90% reporting Votes Sanders (won) 50.1% 527,603 Clinton 48.0% 505,815 Dropped out: O'Malley Source: AP
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2016 · 11:24:40 PM EST · Steve Singiser
A big chunk of Wayne came in, and the Sanders lead, predictably, has shrunk. But he still leads by 17,000 votes. And the big dilemma for Team Hillary is that they’re running out of Detroit. 83 percent of the populous county has now chimed in. Presumably, what remains is Detroit (the pattern is for the urban areas to report last), but is it enough to close the gap? The chunks that have come in have cut the Sanders lead in half so...stay tuned! Tuesday, Mar 8, 2016
The last poll showed Hillary winning by 20%. LOL! But the young voters Rocked the Vote!! Way to go! This is the future we're voting for, and it will be their future longer than ours!
Either there's something wrong with the models the poll takers use for their polls or they simply do not want to report the truth.
Republicans want to promote HRC's inevitability as long as possible since they would much rather face her than Bernie. Guess they believe in self-perpetuating wishful thinking.
There's something wrong with their models. They are aware that difficulty reaching people without landline phones can be a problem. But it's possible that they are also underestimating the turnout of young people in this election. Young people have typically tended not to vote. And there could be other problems. They were WAY off in Michigan.
”So, exactly how will the wealthy and powerful who are the political establishment in this country put out the fire that Bernie's campaign has ignited? Will they be able to quiet the restlessness of so many millions of us who believe that without a political revolution we will be crushed? I do not think so. "
--Donna Smith, Progressive Democrats of America ================
I may have mentioned this idea here before, but I have been thinking about the effect of means of communication on politics--particularly political parties--and the above ties into it nicely.
In the 18th Century, communication of political ideas was by letter among committees of correspondence. There was no way to stop riders from carrying letters.
In the 1820's newspapers became numerous and widespread, and the first modern political party--the Whig Party--arose. They had the biggest and best national organization, and held the first national nominating convention.
In the 1860's came the telegraph, the weekly illustrated news magazine, and the Republican Party, which dominated national politics for nearly seventy years.
In the late 1920's and 1930's came radio, which had a huge effect on the political scene throughout the world because of its immediacy. The Democratic Party and the New Deal consensus became dominant for a good forty years.
Each of these changes in methods of communication brought about changes in social organization and consequently in politics. Now we have the Internet and smart phones, which in addition to making communication even faster are interactive rather than broadcast. Changes in social organization are already spreading rapidly, and the political power structure will inevitably be rebuilt--there is no stopping it short of destroying the Internet and the telephone system, which will not happen. Just how things will be rebuilt we cannot know in advance, but we are surely witnessing a change greater and faster moving than those brought about by newspapers, telegraph, railways, telephones, typewriters, radio and automobiles. Not just a change of technology, but a change of society. The old social powers will not willingly surrender, but their defeat is certain and I expect it will come faster than most anyone can imagine.
Friends are first.
ReplyDeleteLeft a link at the end of the last thread.
Yes. Saw it. Times have changed, that's for sure.
DeleteI figure it must be pretty cool in Vermont, the way those robins have their feathers fluffed up. Wonder if therapod dinosaurs fluffed their feathers the same way when it was cold. The probably did, I suppose.
Well, better get to bed. Still hopeful about Michigan. Gotta leave for Sandy Eggo dark and early Thursday, returning well after nightfall. A very interesting alleged DUI case--I think the Public Defender has a considerable advantage over the DA. BTW, there was a very gratifying result in a civil case I had in Alaska (go ahead, kid, blow your own horn)--a strange combination of circumstances, the likes of which I hadn't ever seen in the same case before. I think I helped to save the bacon of a very deserving medical provider. I don't know the details, because the settlement isn't public record. But I can feel good about it.
--Alan
Well, it was a bit nippy that day. But those are Canadian Robins, so this is their southland. :-)
DeleteWell done, a la Alaska, Alan!!! I love it when justice carries the day!
Well done, Alan!
DeletePoll suggests Illinois has somehow joined the South: Tribune poll
ReplyDeleteBill, could this be why? (from the article…)
Delete"Clinton, who was born in Chicago and grew up in suburban Park Ridge"
I'm still hoping Bernie's Brooklyn accent carries him far in NY.
That may have something to do with it. Most people are aware of her long-ago connection to the state, although (as I mentioned before) she has had little connection as an adult. But I find it hard to believe that is a major factor for such a large fraction of the voters.
DeleteVery disappointing.
DeleteOff on something of a tangent: It is my opinion and only my opinion, mind you, that where black politicians are concerned they are afraid to change allegiance to Bernie because the Clintons are powerful and they fear reprisals in case of an HRC victory in the general. I really can't otherwise account for there not being more black support for Bernie.
I did see a video that included a very stirring speech by Jessee Jackson Jr., and I know some younger black entertainment figures and such are for Bernie. But I recall an article several weeks ago discussing South Carolina in which one of the statewide black politicians essentially said just that, namely the Clintons had been good to him and his ilk and it would be imprudent to support Sanders, no matter what his personal preference might be. Says a lot for the Clintons if you ask me.
This topic started with a poll. And after seeing the Michigan results, we have to wonder whether polls mean anything in this election.
DeleteDemocrats Abroad global presidential primary voting has concluded; results will be available when votes are tallied on March 21st. There are reports of record-breaking participation.
ReplyDeleteI read this morning that a large, perhaps record, turnout is anticipated in Michigan, but haven't had a chance to check reports.
Alan
Reported very high absentee ballots in Michigan, high turnout still expected. Low turnout in Mississippi.
ReplyDeleteAlan
wOOt! Thanks for the updates!!
DeleteThis augurs well, methinks:
ReplyDeleteGRAND RAPIDS, MICH. - Polling places are busy on this primary election day in Michigan, with some locations reportedly running out of ballots.
Multiple callers at Plainfield Township precinct No. 3 -- the Ambrose Ridge Apartments -- told WZZM that Democratic ballots have run out. Voters there were told more would be available within an hour.
Turnout is proving to be high across West Michigan. County clerks in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties tell WZZM that polling places are the busiest they have seen in a primary election in decades.
--Alan
I was just coming by to say the same, Alan. :-)
Deletehttp://www.wzzm13.com/news/politics/michigan-politics/high-voter-turnout-in-michigan-primaries/73984224
Interesting. CNN shows this:
ReplyDelete☆ Projected winner
MICHIGAN
Dems with 12% of the vote counted:
sanders 51.9%
clinton 47.1%
updated 8:22 pm et, mar. 8, 2016
(Note: no projected winner)
MISSISSIPPI
Dems with 0% of the vote counted
clinton ☆ 0.0%
sanders 0.0%
And their giant headline is:
CLINTON WINS MISSISSIPPI
But the media isn't showing any bias, right? ;-)
We can only hope it's as accurate as Rove calling Ohio for Romney!
DeleteI looked at the electoral map from 2012. The majority of the states that Hillary has won so far went to Romney in 2012. She's winning Red States. Is that going to help her?
ReplyDeleteMost of her delegates are from Red states that will vote Republican in the general election. But don't notice that, because the DNC is sure she's the one they need to crown, because after all she's entitled. Never mind that the polls show Bernie is the one who can beat the Republicans.
DeleteI had noticed the same thing, although not in such detail, Susan. It seems she can do little better than pull about even with Bernie outside the Confederacy.
DeleteAs of now (53% reporting in Michigan) Bernie continues to hold his lead, which has been varying between about 2% and 5% from the get-go. Very few counties have reported 100%, and there are probably absentee ballots yet to be counted. Not yet time to break out the bubbly.
Time for me to head for the barn; will be back later.
--Alan
It would help her if she actually won those states in the general. But, as Listener and Alan point out, this is unlikely.
DeleteIt is true that the media is now saying she could beat Trump... not saying much considering word has been for months that Bernie could beat any Republican candidate. *sigh*
Well, yes. Clinton won Mississippi. Big time. But with 65% of the vote counted, Bernie leads in Michigan by about 3%. Not bad for somebody who was supposed to lose by upwards of 5%.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, I wore my Bernie pin to the Disability Pride Parade committee meeting tonight. And as we were discussing fundraising, there was mention of the very small amounts Bernie asks for. $3 time 5 million contributions ...
Nicely done, Bill. I have Bernie T-shirts but must get me a pin...providing I can manage to remember. The ol' steel trap is getting a bit rusty...
DeleteIncidentally, it looks like Bernie is carrying Clinton County. :-)
DeleteI keep giving away my pins, but will see if they have anymore at HQ when I (finally!) go back to volunteer there soon. If they do, Cat, I'll pick one up for you. If they have both kinds, would you prefer white or light blue?
DeleteWith 81% of the vote now in, the marge is essentially unchanged. It's getting close to the point where they should call it for Bernie.
DeleteLight blue, if you think of it, Listener, t hanks. But don't worry about it.
DeleteThey should. They probably won't till the last possible moment though, curse them.
DeleteWith 91% of the vote in, HuffPost has just called it for Bernie. They give him 63 delegates to Hilary's 53, with 14 undecided.
DeleteThanks for the delegate count, Bill.
DeleteDo we know what the relative delegate totals are?
As of the moment, HuffPost shows Clinton with 1160 pledged delegates and Bernie with 503.
DeleteCNN is truly shameless. They called MS for HRC with 0% of the vote counted. They called MS for Trump with 49% of the vote counted. With 84% of the vote counted, and Bernie having been ahead continuously all night long, they still haven't called it for Bernie. They can't even bring themselves to say "Sanders is ahead in MI". Instead they say "A tight race in MI." Give me a break!
ReplyDeleteI gave up on CNN years ago. Pity, it started out so promising.
Delete85% reporting, and Bernie's lead is holding: 50% to 48%. Looking good.
ReplyDeleteAlan
Michigan primary
ReplyDeleteLast updated Mar 8, 2016 at 11:32 PM ET
Mar 8130 delegates
90% reporting Votes
Sanders (won)
50.1%
527,603
Clinton
48.0%
505,815
Dropped out: O'Malley
Source: AP
This from Google.
DeleteAP has called MI for Bernie at 90% reporting.
ReplyDeleteAlan
kos:
ReplyDeleteTuesday, Mar 8, 2016 · 11:24:40 PM EST · Steve Singiser
A big chunk of Wayne came in, and the Sanders lead, predictably, has shrunk. But he still leads by 17,000 votes. And the big dilemma for Team Hillary is that they’re running out of Detroit. 83 percent of the populous county has now chimed in. Presumably, what remains is Detroit (the pattern is for the urban areas to report last), but is it enough to close the gap? The chunks that have come in have cut the Sanders lead in half so...stay tuned!
Tuesday, Mar 8, 2016
FINALLY! CNN has called Michigan for Bernie!
ReplyDeleteWith 96% of the vote in.
Hurrah for AP! But even so, it took everyone long enough to believe it!
ReplyDeleteMichigan Democratic polls from realclearpolics.com:
ReplyDeleteMonday 3/7:
Fox: Clinton 62, Sanders 34
Monmouth: Clinton 55, Sanders 42
Sunday 3/6:
Fox: Clinton 66, Sanders 29
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton 57, Sanders 40
CBS/YouGov: Clinton 55, Sanders 44
Saturday 3/5:
ARG: Clinton 60, Sanders 36
--Alan
The last poll showed Hillary winning by 20%. LOL! But the young voters Rocked the Vote!! Way to go! This is the future we're voting for, and it will be their future longer than ours!
ReplyDeleteEither there's something wrong with the models the poll takers use for their polls or they simply do not want to report the truth.
DeleteRepublicans want to promote HRC's inevitability as long as possible since they would much rather face her than Bernie. Guess they believe in self-perpetuating wishful thinking.
There's something wrong with their models. They are aware that difficulty reaching people without landline phones can be a problem. But it's possible that they are also underestimating the turnout of young people in this election. Young people have typically tended not to vote. And there could be other problems. They were WAY off in Michigan.
DeleteExcellent pin choice, Cat. I heartily concur. ;-)
ReplyDelete”So, exactly how will the wealthy and powerful who are the political establishment in this country put out the fire that Bernie's campaign has ignited? Will they be able to quiet the restlessness of so many millions of us who believe that without a political revolution we will be crushed? I do not think so. "
ReplyDelete--Donna Smith, Progressive Democrats of America
================
I may have mentioned this idea here before, but I have been thinking about the effect of means of communication on politics--particularly political parties--and the above ties into it nicely.
In the 18th Century, communication of political ideas was by letter among committees of correspondence. There was no way to stop riders from carrying letters.
In the 1820's newspapers became numerous and widespread, and the first modern political party--the Whig Party--arose. They had the biggest and best national organization, and held the first national nominating convention.
In the 1860's came the telegraph, the weekly illustrated news magazine, and the Republican Party, which dominated national politics for nearly seventy years.
In the late 1920's and 1930's came radio, which had a huge effect on the political scene throughout the world because of its immediacy. The Democratic Party and the New Deal consensus became dominant for a good forty years.
Each of these changes in methods of communication brought about changes in social organization and consequently in politics.
Now we have the Internet and smart phones, which in addition to making communication even faster are interactive rather than broadcast. Changes in social organization are already spreading rapidly, and the political power structure will inevitably be rebuilt--there is no stopping it short of destroying the Internet and the telephone system, which will not happen. Just how things will be rebuilt we cannot know in advance, but we are surely witnessing a change greater and faster moving than those brought about by newspapers, telegraph, railways, telephones, typewriters, radio and automobiles. Not just a change of technology, but a change of society. The old social powers will not willingly surrender, but their defeat is certain and I expect it will come faster than most anyone can imagine.
--Alan
P.S.: listener--are Canadian robins visiting you from up north different from US robins visiting you from down south?
DeleteAlan
Yes! The Canadian variety has a brighter orange breast and gorgeous black and white markings, in contrast to our softer-toned variety.
Delete