This is how Hillary Loses the Primary [Click] Bernie Sanders will never be president. But unless Clinton changes her strategy—and soon—he can still wind up toppling her.
I'm not sure I buy this guy's analysis. Too much depends on tying Hilary to the 20year-old policies of Bill's administration. But I suppose a lot of not-so-young people remember that better than they remember anything that has happened since.
Instead, I keep going back to how Hilary lost in 2008 after being the almost unchallenged front-runner. I don't think she ever won a caucus (Nevada?). She pretty soon gave up trying. It sounds like her campaign is expecting similar problem in 2016.
But the real problem was that her campaign had no Plan B for the possibility the primary wouldn't be over on Super Tuesday. With no real competition, Obama won the next 12 elections by large margins, building what proved to be an insurmountable margin in elected delegates. Once the Hillary campaign got back into gear, she won every election she seriously contested. But with the delegates split proportionately, by margins too small to help her. In fact, with every victory she fell further behind in terms of the percentage of the remaining delegates she needed.
She won't make that mistake again. Bernie needs to come out of Super Tuesday ahead or very close and prepared to carry on the fight. I don't think any of the pollsters or pundits have seriously looked at California yet.
And if it goes past Super Tuesday, I just might knock on a few doors in Illinois.
You probably don't want to have the sound turned up for that link. When I first saw the header I thought it was about Jeb and Hillary not mentioning W and Bill. But no, it's W and Bill not mentioning Jeb and Hillary. I imagine they had marching orders on that subject! Ha!
I largely agree with you, Bill. But the article makes some interesting points; HRC may be in for an interesting time rather than a coronation. From now to the primaries/caucuses is a political eternity. I suspect Bernie is virtually unknown out here.
And on another subject altogether, I see that the data the New Horizons craft will gather on its Pluto flyby will require 16 months (!) for transmission to Terra. Low bitrates and all that.
Yes, New Horizons has been on the way for quite a while. Since Pluto was still a planet. :P
Dad listens to podcasts from that slimy Dick Morris. the other night we were chatting before bedtime, the time when he listens, and he suggested I listen with him since the talk was about the collapse of Hillary's imperial candidacy. He said cheerfully that Morris was sure to give Bernie a lot of credit. He did, sort of, but Dick Morris is not someone I would want speaking well of me, even in a backhanded sort of way. What a slime ball! Of course, as Sis points out, he's better than some of the hate mongers etc. Dad could be listening to.
But to the point, he kept calling Hillary corrupt and tying her back to Bill and to scandals in that administration. Now, as everybody here knows, I am no fan of HRC. But I would hardly call her corrupt! Massively, perhaps disastrously overconfident, yes indeed. And she doesn't seem to have learned that she is not, in fact, entitled to the nomination simply by virtue of being HRC. She's gonna crash and burn just like she did before, and Bernie will be right there. The only thing I worry about is Joe Biden throwing his hat in. Mum for one really wants him to run. If he does, that will probably draw support away from Bernie. If Bernie weren't running I'd love to see Biden get in the race, if only to watch him put HRC in her place. But I really do not want to see it come down to Bernie vs. Joe!
I feel much the same way about Joe Biden. I'd be okay with a Sanders/Biden ticket or even a Biden/Sanders ticket if they actually won. My dream ticket would be Sanders/Warren, but I live in the NE. Ha!
Joe Biden has great character, but I take exception to his foreign policy positions. I should expect that if it came down to Joe and Bernie we could expect a substantive and respectful campaign of ideas and ideals.
On the other side, I give you the following link and well-turned phrase as a teaser:
“Democrats, even the atheists, have become devout believers in a benevolent God, as Trump keeps delivering on their prayers. It will only get better as Republican primaries move into all-white, anti-immigrant strongholds. ”
Dean for America--and Bernie too!
ReplyDeleteThis morning's political read:
This is how Hillary Loses the Primary [Click] Bernie Sanders will never be president. But unless Clinton changes her strategy—and soon—he can still wind up toppling her.
--Alan
I'm not sure I buy this guy's analysis. Too much depends on tying Hilary to the 20year-old policies of Bill's administration. But I suppose a lot of not-so-young people remember that better than they remember anything that has happened since.
DeleteInstead, I keep going back to how Hilary lost in 2008 after being the almost unchallenged front-runner. I don't think she ever won a caucus (Nevada?). She pretty soon gave up trying. It sounds like her campaign is expecting similar problem in 2016.
But the real problem was that her campaign had no Plan B for the possibility the primary wouldn't be over on Super Tuesday. With no real competition, Obama won the next 12 elections by large margins, building what proved to be an insurmountable margin in elected delegates. Once the Hillary campaign got back into gear, she won every election she seriously contested. But with the delegates split proportionately, by margins too small to help her. In fact, with every victory she fell further behind in terms of the percentage of the remaining delegates she needed.
She won't make that mistake again. Bernie needs to come out of Super Tuesday ahead or very close and prepared to carry on the fight. I don't think any of the pollsters or pundits have seriously looked at California yet.
And if it goes past Super Tuesday, I just might knock on a few doors in Illinois.
Bush, Clinton avoid one subject: Bush, Clinton
Deletehttp://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/bill-clinton-george-w-bush/index.html
You probably don't want to have the sound turned up for that link. When I first saw the header I thought it was about Jeb and Hillary not mentioning W and Bill. But no, it's W and Bill not mentioning Jeb and Hillary. I imagine they had marching orders on that subject! Ha!
DeleteI largely agree with you, Bill. But the article makes some interesting points; HRC may be in for an interesting time rather than a coronation. From now to the primaries/caucuses is a political eternity. I suspect Bernie is virtually unknown out here.
ReplyDeleteAnd on another subject altogether, I see that the data the New Horizons craft will gather on its Pluto flyby will require 16 months (!) for transmission to Terra. Low bitrates and all that.
--Alan
Yes, New Horizons has been on the way for quite a while. Since Pluto was still a planet. :P
DeleteDad listens to podcasts from that slimy Dick Morris. the other night we were chatting before bedtime, the time when he listens, and he suggested I listen with him since the talk was about the collapse of Hillary's imperial candidacy. He said cheerfully that Morris was sure to give Bernie a lot of credit. He did, sort of, but Dick Morris is not someone I would want speaking well of me, even in a backhanded sort of way. What a slime ball! Of course, as Sis points out, he's better than some of the hate mongers etc. Dad could be listening to.
But to the point, he kept calling Hillary corrupt and tying her back to Bill and to scandals in that administration. Now, as everybody here knows, I am no fan of HRC. But I would hardly call her corrupt! Massively, perhaps disastrously overconfident, yes indeed. And she doesn't seem to have learned that she is not, in fact, entitled to the nomination simply by virtue of being HRC. She's gonna crash and burn just like she did before, and Bernie will be right there. The only thing I worry about is Joe Biden throwing his hat in. Mum for one really wants him to run. If he does, that will probably draw support away from Bernie. If Bernie weren't running I'd love to see Biden get in the race, if only to watch him put HRC in her place. But I really do not want to see it come down to Bernie vs. Joe!
"Since Pluto was still a planet. :P "
ReplyDelete:-D
I feel much the same way about Joe Biden. I'd be okay with a Sanders/Biden ticket or even a Biden/Sanders ticket if they actually won. My dream ticket would be Sanders/Warren, but I live in the NE. Ha!
Joe Biden has great character, but I take exception to his foreign policy positions. I should expect that if it came down to Joe and Bernie we could expect a substantive and respectful campaign of ideas and ideals.
ReplyDeleteOn the other side, I give you the following link and well-turned phrase as a teaser:
Not Like Us [Click]
“Democrats, even the atheists, have become devout believers in a benevolent God, as Trump keeps delivering on their prayers. It will only get better as Republican primaries move into all-white, anti-immigrant strongholds. ”
--Alan