Monday, November 02, 2020

1: TOMORROW!



43 comments:

  1. E.J. Dionne Jr.: Why this is Joe Biden’s hour [Click]

    Anyone here know where Joe will be waiting for the election returns?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I suppose the first returns from the east coast states will come when polls close in California, 10PM ET. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania should be among the first, and should have their mail ballots included in the first reports.

      Delete
    2. Vermont may again be first to report. Biden has a yuge lead here.

      Delete
    3. Thanks; that's what I expected. This won't be the year for big vote watch/victory celebration gatherings. At least among sensible people.

      Delete
    4. I suppose that in time we will hear how the White House Resident takes it. . .

      Delete
    5. Remember that part of the Florida panhandle is in the central time zone. Florida won't report any results until polls close there.

      Delete
    6. I either didn't know or had forgotten that Florida was in two time zones. Arizona, too.

      Delete
  2. US election 2020: How to follow the results on the BBC

    The BBC news website will have live voting results as they come in, and a live page with the latest reaction and analysis from correspondents in the US and around the world.

    Online coverage will also include:

    A live video stream of the BBC's election night special
    An interactive map with polling data and election results from the presidential and congressional races, down to a county level
    We'll be tweeting every result on @BBCNorthAmerica, along with expert analysis. You can also find the latest highlights on our BBC News Facebook account and on Instagram.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Art Cullen: It's been a strange trip. Four years ago, who would've thought Biden might win Iowa? [Click]

    Various items via politicalwire.com:

    Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball‘s final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217. Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50 to 48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.

    Swing State Poll Finds No Late Shift to Trump [Click]

    New Battleground State Polls

    November 2, 2020 at 6:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard 122 Comments

    From Monmouth:

    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

    From Morning Consult:

    ARIZONA: Biden 48%, Trump 46%
    FLORIDA: Biden 52%, Trump 45%
    GEORGIA: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
    MICHIGAN: Biden 52%, Trump 45%
    NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
    OHIO: Trump 49%, Biden 47%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
    TEXAS: Biden 48%, Trump 48%
    WISCONSIN: Biden 54%, Trump 41

    From Aspiration:

    FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 43%
    GEORGIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%

    From Public Policy Polling:

    IOWA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%

    From Research & Co.

    MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
    MINNESOTA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
    OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 47%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
    WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 42%

    From Frederick Polls:

    FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
    NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%

    ReplyDelete
  4. Taegan Goddard:

    if you want a hint of who will win on Election Night, there are four key battleground states that begin counting before Election Day:

    Arizona
    North Carolina
    Georgia
    Florida

    Unless these states are extremely close, we should know the winners late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning.

    President Trump won all four states in 2016 and has no real path to victory if he doesn’t win them again. That means that if Joe Biden flips any of them, Trump’s chances to win the election fade dramatically.

    With one day to go, the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently gives Biden a 90% chance to win the Electoral College. Here’s how those odds change if Biden flips any of these states:

    If Biden wins Arizona, his odds go to 98%.
    If Biden wins North Carolina, his odds go to 99%.
    If Biden wins Georgia, his odds go to 99%.
    If Biden wins Florida, his odds go to 99%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just to clarify, none of the states actually count the ballots before Election Day, in the sense of knowing how the races are going. They simply process the ballots. They open the ballots, make sure they are in proper order, check off names of folks who have voted, and feed the ballot into the voting machine for counting. They may know the total number of ballots received, but they do not know how anyone voted. That doesn't become known until the voting machine is tallied after the polls close.

      Delete
  5. It's going to be a close-run thing, but it seems possible that Georgia might send two Democratic Senators to Congress. Both of the seats seem headed for runoffs. I expect that if Biden wins Georgia, that should provide a tailwind for the Democratic Senate candidates.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both races are likely to go to run-offs, but the numbers I see for the special election have the combined totals for the Republican candidates greatly exceeding the combined numbers for the Democratic candidates. It looks to me like Warnock's only real chance is if most of those who voted for the losing Republican candidates stay home.

      Delete
  6. Even More Battleground Polls
    November 2, 2020 at 1:28 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

    From NBC News/Marist:

    ARIZONA: Biden 48%, Trump 48%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 46%

    From Data Orbital:

    ARIZONA: Biden 46%, Trump 45%

    ReplyDelete
  7. Charlie Cook Says Biden’s Poll Numbers Are Likely ‘Understating’ His Support

    Scared that Biden’s seemingly hopeful standing in the polls is another setup for heartbreak a la 2016? Don’t be as worried about that this time around, elections analyst Charlie Cook says.

    Cook told MSNBC anchor Chuck Todd that college educated suburban women are likely being undercounted the polls and will show up in greater numbers than other demographics.

    “I suspect that they’re going to go up at a higher level, higher rate, than other groups, and that will work to Biden’s benefit,” he said. “I think it’s more likely that the polls are understating where Biden is than overstating.”

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe I posted the article about why 2016 predictions were off in Wisconsin and Michigan: There were a lot of undecided voters who didn't like either Hilary or Donald, and an unexpectedly large number broke for Donald. That may have been true elsewhere as well.

      Delete
  8. From NYT front page:

    Early Votes Near 100 Million as Turnout Heads Toward a Record

    As of Monday, more than 95 million Americans have already voted, over two-thirds of 2016’s total. Some states are still holding early voting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If I recall correctly, early voting here in Massachusetts ran October Seventeenth through November First. Don't know about other states.

      BTW before I forget again: I finally remembered to track my ballot. According to the Mass. Sec. of State's web site, it has been received and is eligible to be counted.

      Delete
  9. VT: 2219 (+23)
    58deaths(97days)
    335 active cases
    Recovered:1826 (+10)
    In Hospital 3 (+2)
    Tests 190,359 (+251)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Is this how you spell "stranded assets?"

    On the horizon: the end of oil and the beginnings of a low-carbon planet [Click] “With demand and share prices dropping, Europe’s fossil fuel producers recognise that peak oil is probably now behind them.”

    ExxonMobil warns of $30bn writedown of shale assets amid energy price slump [Click] “Announcement follows record quarterly loss of $680m, its third quarterly deficit in a row.”

    Coal industry will never recover after coronavirus pandemic, say experts [Click] “Crisis has proved renewable energy is now a safer investment, and accelerated the shift.”

    ReplyDelete
  11. Your moment of Zen:

    Record number of endangered turtles hatch in Mexico
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54724723

    ReplyDelete
  12. A new CNBC/Change Research poll across six swing states finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump, 50% to 46%.

    Biden also leads in each of the swing states

    ARIZONA: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
    FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
    MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
    NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
    WISCONSIN: Biden 53%, Trump 45%

    ReplyDelete
  13. WaPo: The battleground states that might count election results the slowest [Click] Lots of information, but condensing it too much: 1) don’t expect PA results for a week; 2) AZ, GA, FL, NC, Ohio, TX should be among the earliest to report preliminary tallies.

    ReplyDelete
  14. All these polls are encouraging. All the same, were it not for my blood pressure medication, I'd have already crawled inside a vodka bottle, not to emerge till January Twenty-first. To be honest, I'm almost as frightened at the prospect of Trump losing and releasing his murderous supporters to riot and God only knows what else as at the prospect of Trump winning. I'd REALLY like just to press the Fast Forward button and skip the next two and a half months or so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, yes; it could be altogether more interesting a time that we would prefer.

      Delete
    2. "that" we would prefer should be "than" we would prefer.

      Delete
  15. Replies
    1. I'll want to check that out. But I note the article says nothing about ebooks. From my perspective the independent bookstores' Achilles heel is their inability to provide teh format I need.

      Delete
  16. puddle is back online! She asked me to post this:

    "Whew! Helluva week. Derick brought the repaired computer back at two, about five minutes after FedX delivered the new one. This seems to be heading towards me becoming a two computer person. I think I actually begin to grok the purpose of forty days in the wilderness. Did NOT go willingly, fer shur. And oddly, considering all the bitching and moaning, I emerged something close to joyous.

    "Meanwhile boy actually voluntarily ate the bowl of kibble that's been out all week, which he wouldn't touch. I've been cooking for him so he didn't have to, but he obviously ignored it while waiting for omelettes, cottage cheese and chicken fried rice. He seems to be back, too!

    "listener, please tell the blog."


    Whoo hoo!!!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dixville Notch is about to vote. Ready?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Dixville Notch has voted:
    Biden 5
    Trump 0

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The last time Dixville Notch voted all for one candidate was 1960, when all 9 votes went to Nixon. 1960 was the first time Dixville Notch alone voted first on Election Day.

      Delete
    2. Regarding Hart’s, I’d say their decision bodes well for their choice of candidate. We’ll see.

      Delete