I suppose the first returns from the east coast states will come when polls close in California, 10PM ET. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania should be among the first, and should have their mail ballots included in the first reports.
US election 2020: How to follow the results on the BBC
The BBC news website will have live voting results as they come in, and a live page with the latest reaction and analysis from correspondents in the US and around the world.
Online coverage will also include:
A live video stream of the BBC's election night special An interactive map with polling data and election results from the presidential and congressional races, down to a county level We'll be tweeting every result on @BBCNorthAmerica, along with expert analysis. You can also find the latest highlights on our BBC News Facebook account and on Instagram.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball‘s final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217. Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50 to 48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
if you want a hint of who will win on Election Night, there are four key battleground states that begin counting before Election Day:
Arizona North Carolina Georgia Florida
Unless these states are extremely close, we should know the winners late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning.
President Trump won all four states in 2016 and has no real path to victory if he doesn’t win them again. That means that if Joe Biden flips any of them, Trump’s chances to win the election fade dramatically.
With one day to go, the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently gives Biden a 90% chance to win the Electoral College. Here’s how those odds change if Biden flips any of these states:
If Biden wins Arizona, his odds go to 98%. If Biden wins North Carolina, his odds go to 99%. If Biden wins Georgia, his odds go to 99%. If Biden wins Florida, his odds go to 99%.
Just to clarify, none of the states actually count the ballots before Election Day, in the sense of knowing how the races are going. They simply process the ballots. They open the ballots, make sure they are in proper order, check off names of folks who have voted, and feed the ballot into the voting machine for counting. They may know the total number of ballots received, but they do not know how anyone voted. That doesn't become known until the voting machine is tallied after the polls close.
It's going to be a close-run thing, but it seems possible that Georgia might send two Democratic Senators to Congress. Both of the seats seem headed for runoffs. I expect that if Biden wins Georgia, that should provide a tailwind for the Democratic Senate candidates.
Both races are likely to go to run-offs, but the numbers I see for the special election have the combined totals for the Republican candidates greatly exceeding the combined numbers for the Democratic candidates. It looks to me like Warnock's only real chance is if most of those who voted for the losing Republican candidates stay home.
Charlie Cook Says Biden’s Poll Numbers Are Likely ‘Understating’ His Support
Scared that Biden’s seemingly hopeful standing in the polls is another setup for heartbreak a la 2016? Don’t be as worried about that this time around, elections analyst Charlie Cook says.
Cook told MSNBC anchor Chuck Todd that college educated suburban women are likely being undercounted the polls and will show up in greater numbers than other demographics.
“I suspect that they’re going to go up at a higher level, higher rate, than other groups, and that will work to Biden’s benefit,” he said. “I think it’s more likely that the polls are understating where Biden is than overstating.”
I believe I posted the article about why 2016 predictions were off in Wisconsin and Michigan: There were a lot of undecided voters who didn't like either Hilary or Donald, and an unexpectedly large number broke for Donald. That may have been true elsewhere as well.
If I recall correctly, early voting here in Massachusetts ran October Seventeenth through November First. Don't know about other states.
BTW before I forget again: I finally remembered to track my ballot. According to the Mass. Sec. of State's web site, it has been received and is eligible to be counted.
All these polls are encouraging. All the same, were it not for my blood pressure medication, I'd have already crawled inside a vodka bottle, not to emerge till January Twenty-first. To be honest, I'm almost as frightened at the prospect of Trump losing and releasing his murderous supporters to riot and God only knows what else as at the prospect of Trump winning. I'd REALLY like just to press the Fast Forward button and skip the next two and a half months or so.
I'll want to check that out. But I note the article says nothing about ebooks. From my perspective the independent bookstores' Achilles heel is their inability to provide teh format I need.
"Whew! Helluva week. Derick brought the repaired computer back at two, about five minutes after FedX delivered the new one. This seems to be heading towards me becoming a two computer person. I think I actually begin to grok the purpose of forty days in the wilderness. Did NOT go willingly, fer shur. And oddly, considering all the bitching and moaning, I emerged something close to joyous.
"Meanwhile boy actually voluntarily ate the bowl of kibble that's been out all week, which he wouldn't touch. I've been cooking for him so he didn't have to, but he obviously ignored it while waiting for omelettes, cottage cheese and chicken fried rice. He seems to be back, too!
The last time Dixville Notch voted all for one candidate was 1960, when all 9 votes went to Nixon. 1960 was the first time Dixville Notch alone voted first on Election Day.
E.J. Dionne Jr.: Why this is Joe Biden’s hour [Click]
ReplyDeleteAnyone here know where Joe will be waiting for the election returns?
I suppose the first returns from the east coast states will come when polls close in California, 10PM ET. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania should be among the first, and should have their mail ballots included in the first reports.
DeleteVermont may again be first to report. Biden has a yuge lead here.
DeleteBernie has been stumping for Biden
Deletehttps://vtdigger.org/2020/11/01/bernie-sanders-hits-the-campaign-trail-for-biden-aiming-to-oust-trump/?u=*%7CUNIQID%7C*&utm_source=VTDigger+Subscribers+and+Donors&utm_campaign=df1a8d5d76-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_11_01_09_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dc3c5486db-df1a8d5d76-405965485
Biden and Harris, and their spouses, will be at the Biden home in Delaware.
Deletehttps://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523776-biden-to-spend-election-night-in-delaware%3famp
Thanks; that's what I expected. This won't be the year for big vote watch/victory celebration gatherings. At least among sensible people.
DeleteI suppose that in time we will hear how the White House Resident takes it. . .
DeleteRemember that part of the Florida panhandle is in the central time zone. Florida won't report any results until polls close there.
DeleteI either didn't know or had forgotten that Florida was in two time zones. Arizona, too.
DeleteUS election 2020: How to follow the results on the BBC
ReplyDeleteThe BBC news website will have live voting results as they come in, and a live page with the latest reaction and analysis from correspondents in the US and around the world.
Online coverage will also include:
A live video stream of the BBC's election night special
An interactive map with polling data and election results from the presidential and congressional races, down to a county level
We'll be tweeting every result on @BBCNorthAmerica, along with expert analysis. You can also find the latest highlights on our BBC News Facebook account and on Instagram.
'The numbers floored me': hunger in Pennsylvania hits highest level since pandemic's start [Click] J.H.C.
ReplyDeleteWow. 😯
DeleteGood article.
Art Cullen: It's been a strange trip. Four years ago, who would've thought Biden might win Iowa? [Click]
ReplyDeleteVarious items via politicalwire.com:
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball‘s final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217. Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50 to 48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
Swing State Poll Finds No Late Shift to Trump [Click]
New Battleground State Polls
November 2, 2020 at 6:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard 122 Comments
From Monmouth:
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
From Morning Consult:
ARIZONA: Biden 48%, Trump 46%
FLORIDA: Biden 52%, Trump 45%
GEORGIA: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
MICHIGAN: Biden 52%, Trump 45%
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
OHIO: Trump 49%, Biden 47%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
TEXAS: Biden 48%, Trump 48%
WISCONSIN: Biden 54%, Trump 41
From Aspiration:
FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 43%
GEORGIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
From Public Policy Polling:
IOWA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
From Research & Co.
MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
MINNESOTA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 47%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
From Frederick Polls:
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
Taegan Goddard:
ReplyDeleteif you want a hint of who will win on Election Night, there are four key battleground states that begin counting before Election Day:
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Unless these states are extremely close, we should know the winners late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning.
President Trump won all four states in 2016 and has no real path to victory if he doesn’t win them again. That means that if Joe Biden flips any of them, Trump’s chances to win the election fade dramatically.
With one day to go, the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently gives Biden a 90% chance to win the Electoral College. Here’s how those odds change if Biden flips any of these states:
If Biden wins Arizona, his odds go to 98%.
If Biden wins North Carolina, his odds go to 99%.
If Biden wins Georgia, his odds go to 99%.
If Biden wins Florida, his odds go to 99%.
Just to clarify, none of the states actually count the ballots before Election Day, in the sense of knowing how the races are going. They simply process the ballots. They open the ballots, make sure they are in proper order, check off names of folks who have voted, and feed the ballot into the voting machine for counting. They may know the total number of ballots received, but they do not know how anyone voted. That doesn't become known until the voting machine is tallied after the polls close.
DeleteIt's going to be a close-run thing, but it seems possible that Georgia might send two Democratic Senators to Congress. Both of the seats seem headed for runoffs. I expect that if Biden wins Georgia, that should provide a tailwind for the Democratic Senate candidates.
ReplyDeleteBoth races are likely to go to run-offs, but the numbers I see for the special election have the combined totals for the Republican candidates greatly exceeding the combined numbers for the Democratic candidates. It looks to me like Warnock's only real chance is if most of those who voted for the losing Republican candidates stay home.
DeleteEven More Battleground Polls
ReplyDeleteNovember 2, 2020 at 1:28 pm EST By Taegan Goddard
From NBC News/Marist:
ARIZONA: Biden 48%, Trump 48%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 46%
From Data Orbital:
ARIZONA: Biden 46%, Trump 45%
12,800 Florida felons eligible to vote after celebrities paid fines, fees: analysis [Click] Courts, strapped for money, also benefitted.
ReplyDelete😍
DeleteCharlie Cook Says Biden’s Poll Numbers Are Likely ‘Understating’ His Support
ReplyDeleteScared that Biden’s seemingly hopeful standing in the polls is another setup for heartbreak a la 2016? Don’t be as worried about that this time around, elections analyst Charlie Cook says.
Cook told MSNBC anchor Chuck Todd that college educated suburban women are likely being undercounted the polls and will show up in greater numbers than other demographics.
“I suspect that they’re going to go up at a higher level, higher rate, than other groups, and that will work to Biden’s benefit,” he said. “I think it’s more likely that the polls are understating where Biden is than overstating.”
I believe I posted the article about why 2016 predictions were off in Wisconsin and Michigan: There were a lot of undecided voters who didn't like either Hilary or Donald, and an unexpectedly large number broke for Donald. That may have been true elsewhere as well.
DeleteTrump’s ‘Army’ of Poll Watchers Looks Like Small Platoon [Click]
ReplyDeleteFrom NYT front page:
ReplyDeleteEarly Votes Near 100 Million as Turnout Heads Toward a Record
As of Monday, more than 95 million Americans have already voted, over two-thirds of 2016’s total. Some states are still holding early voting.
If I recall correctly, early voting here in Massachusetts ran October Seventeenth through November First. Don't know about other states.
DeleteBTW before I forget again: I finally remembered to track my ballot. According to the Mass. Sec. of State's web site, it has been received and is eligible to be counted.
Henry Olsen (WaPo): My predictions for the 2020 presidential and congressional races [Click] In short: Biden wins, Dems win control of Senate.
ReplyDeleteVT: 2219 (+23)
ReplyDelete58deaths(97days)
335 active cases
Recovered:1826 (+10)
In Hospital 3 (+2)
Tests 190,359 (+251)
Is this how you spell "stranded assets?"
ReplyDeleteOn the horizon: the end of oil and the beginnings of a low-carbon planet [Click] “With demand and share prices dropping, Europe’s fossil fuel producers recognise that peak oil is probably now behind them.”
ExxonMobil warns of $30bn writedown of shale assets amid energy price slump [Click] “Announcement follows record quarterly loss of $680m, its third quarterly deficit in a row.”
Coal industry will never recover after coronavirus pandemic, say experts [Click] “Crisis has proved renewable energy is now a safer investment, and accelerated the shift.”
Your moment of Zen:
ReplyDeleteRecord number of endangered turtles hatch in Mexico
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54724723
A new CNBC/Change Research poll across six swing states finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump, 50% to 46%.
ReplyDeleteBiden also leads in each of the swing states
ARIZONA: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
WISCONSIN: Biden 53%, Trump 45%
WaPo: The battleground states that might count election results the slowest [Click] Lots of information, but condensing it too much: 1) don’t expect PA results for a week; 2) AZ, GA, FL, NC, Ohio, TX should be among the earliest to report preliminary tallies.
ReplyDeleteAll these polls are encouraging. All the same, were it not for my blood pressure medication, I'd have already crawled inside a vodka bottle, not to emerge till January Twenty-first. To be honest, I'm almost as frightened at the prospect of Trump losing and releasing his murderous supporters to riot and God only knows what else as at the prospect of Trump winning. I'd REALLY like just to press the Fast Forward button and skip the next two and a half months or so.
ReplyDeleteWell, yes; it could be altogether more interesting a time that we would prefer.
Delete😿💛
Delete"that" we would prefer should be "than" we would prefer.
Delete'This is revolutionary’: new online bookshop unites indies to rival Amazon [Click] How the economics work is not mentioned.
ReplyDeleteI'll want to check that out. But I note the article says nothing about ebooks. From my perspective the independent bookstores' Achilles heel is their inability to provide teh format I need.
Deletepuddle is back online! She asked me to post this:
ReplyDelete"Whew! Helluva week. Derick brought the repaired computer back at two, about five minutes after FedX delivered the new one. This seems to be heading towards me becoming a two computer person. I think I actually begin to grok the purpose of forty days in the wilderness. Did NOT go willingly, fer shur. And oddly, considering all the bitching and moaning, I emerged something close to joyous.
"Meanwhile boy actually voluntarily ate the bowl of kibble that's been out all week, which he wouldn't touch. I've been cooking for him so he didn't have to, but he obviously ignored it while waiting for omelettes, cottage cheese and chicken fried rice. He seems to be back, too!
"listener, please tell the blog."
Whoo hoo!!!
Dixville Notch is about to vote. Ready?
ReplyDeleteDixville Notch has voted:
ReplyDeleteBiden 5
Trump 0
The last time Dixville Notch voted all for one candidate was 1960, when all 9 votes went to Nixon. 1960 was the first time Dixville Notch alone voted first on Election Day.
DeleteHart’s Location, NH, not voting at midnight this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. [Click]
DeleteRegarding Hart’s, I’d say their decision bodes well for their choice of candidate. We’ll see.
Delete