Well, I gotta say, #6 is kinda cheesy. But, really, these methods are no better than the polls. Best not tempt me with the idea of using the entrails of a beast.
No, I say we use the tried and true method, used by the Church lang syne. I say we release a Dove and whichever candidate the Dove rests on is the one. Mind you, we came pretty close with Bernie, eh?
But of course...Luke 12:54-56 says it well 54 He also said to the crowds, “When you see a cloud rising in the west, you immediately say, ‘It is going to rain’; and so it happens. 55 And when you see the south wind blowing, you say, ‘There will be scorching heat’; and it happens. 56 You hypocrites! You know how to interpret the appearance of earth and sky, but why do you not know how to interpret the present time?
Going back in time a little: Alan in CA10/26/2020 11:00:00 PM “After talking with [Cook Political Report expert] I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. . . Here’s the money quote:
Bottom line? “Trump would need to win all of the states that are really close in the polls right now:
Florida, # [48.8/46.5] [%/%] 10/30 FiveThirtyEight recent polls average for [Biden/Trump] Georgia, # [48.4/46.7] Texas, # [46.8/48.1] Ohio, [46.3/47.2] Iowa, # [46.9/46.7] North Carolina. # [49.1/46.7]
to have a pathway to replicating his success in 2016. And right now that’s just very hard to see.”
# => states that process early votes early, per https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-mail-voting-policies-in-effect-for-the-2020-election.aspx
From the Cook Political Report Sept. 29th: “Iowa and Ohio join Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd CD in Toss Up. That leaves just one state, Texas, in Lean Republican. Biden is in the enviable position of not having to win any of those states to get to 270, while Trump has to win all of them, plus another two states (22 Electoral votes) to win the Electoral College.”
Pray to every god you have ever heard of, Listener, and then cross your fingers and your toes, walk in circles widdershins... Anything you can think of!
Nearly 63% of the 428,000 registered Republicans in the county have voted so far, whereas about 56% of the county's 634,000 registered Democrats have voted to date, according to state data. About 225,000 people with no party affiliation have also already voted in the county.
TOTAL REGISTERED: 1,517,189 / (number already voted) Dem 624,518 (355,040) Rep 409,005 (269,640) Minor Party 16,038 + No Party 467,628 (225,000)
I wonder how "no party preference" affects primary voting. You don't register by party in Illinois; you just show up at the polls and say what primary you want to vote in.
I'm sure it varies by state. In California they can vote in the Democratic primary, but not in the Republican one. The state lets the individual parties decide.
We left the UK for Portland expecting a liberal dream. That wasn’t the reality. [Click] Their account of the visit to the Emergency Room reminded me of our experience in Japan. Our daughter was very young, and one evening she spiked a fever—high enough to frighten inexperienced parents. So we called a taxi and went to the nearest reputable ER. It was a long tie ago and I don’t recall what the treatment consisted of, but I think it was probably just administration of a febrifuge (after a reasonably thorough evaluation). When I went to settle the ER bill, it was less than the taxi fare. Yes, that socialized medicine is dreadful, all right. Now, that’s not to say that medical care is perfect in Japan; they have everything from world-class physicians to quacks, and there is no way to get rid of the latter because there is no chance of winning a malpractice suit. People don’t trust physicians, and consequently when they have a problem they will often go to several of them, until they are satisfied that a particular one is credible. Even if a doctor’s office visit costs a fifth of what it does here, if you visit five doctors the cost is the same. And one hardly escapes a doctor’s office without a bag of barely explained pills because that provides a significant part of the physician’s income.
“The United States, after battling the coronavirus for eight months, recorded over 99,000 new cases on Friday, a global record. Two dozen states reported their worst weeks for new cases; none showed any improvement,” the New York Times reports.
“Fourteen states reported single-day records for new cases on Friday: Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Montana, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, Ohio, Colorado and Maine. And three states hit record deaths: Tennessee, Montana and New Mexico.”
Gee! This is the second or third day we haven't received any mail. Does no one love us enough to send us a bill? Or a flyer urging us to vote for or against someone or something? Or maybe the mail carriers are busting their humps to make sure ballots are delivered?
Ten ways to figure out the next President! [Click] Your choice!
ReplyDeleteWell, I gotta say, #6 is kinda cheesy. But, really, these methods are no better than the polls. Best not tempt me with the idea of using the entrails of a beast.
DeleteNo, I say we use the tried and true method, used by the Church lang syne. I say we release a Dove and whichever candidate the Dove rests on is the one. Mind you, we came pretty close with Bernie, eh?
But of course...Luke 12:54-56 says it well
54 He also said to the crowds, “When you see a cloud rising in the west, you immediately say, ‘It is going to rain’; and so it happens. 55 And when you see the south wind blowing, you say, ‘There will be scorching heat’; and it happens. 56 You hypocrites! You know how to interpret the appearance of earth and sky, but why do you not know how to interpret the present time?
Going back in time a little:
ReplyDeleteAlan in CA10/26/2020 11:00:00 PM
“After talking with [Cook Political Report expert] I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. . . Here’s the money quote:
Bottom line?
“Trump would need to win all of the states that are really close in the polls right now:
Florida, # [48.8/46.5] [%/%] 10/30 FiveThirtyEight recent polls average for [Biden/Trump]
Georgia, # [48.4/46.7]
Texas, # [46.8/48.1]
Ohio, [46.3/47.2]
Iowa, # [46.9/46.7]
North Carolina. # [49.1/46.7]
Those are prerequisites for a Trump victory.
And then he’s gotta break through in
Wisconsin, [51.9/43.3]
Michigan, [51.4/42.6]
Pennsylvania, (# 7AM election day) [50.2/45.1]
or Arizona # [48.8/45.6]
to have a pathway to replicating his success in 2016. And right now that’s just very hard to see.”
# => states that process early votes early, per https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-mail-voting-policies-in-effect-for-the-2020-election.aspx
From the Cook Political Report Sept. 29th:
“Iowa and Ohio join Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Maine’s 2nd CD in Toss Up. That leaves just one state, Texas, in Lean Republican. Biden is in the enviable position of not having to win any of those states to get to 270, while Trump has to win all of them, plus another two states (22 Electoral votes) to win the Electoral College.”
🎃
DeleteCNN concurs.
DeleteI just pray they are right this time...!
Pray to every god you have ever heard of, Listener, and then cross your fingers and your toes, walk in circles widdershins... Anything you can think of!
DeleteMiami-Dade
ReplyDeleteNearly 63% of the 428,000 registered Republicans in the county have voted so far, whereas about 56% of the county's 634,000 registered Democrats have voted to date, according to state data. About 225,000 people with no party affiliation have also already voted in the county.
TOTAL REGISTERED: 1,517,189 / (number already voted)
Dem 624,518 (355,040)
Rep 409,005 (269,640)
Minor Party 16,038 +
No Party 467,628 (225,000)
https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/
I note that the second biggest party is "no party preference," just as in California.
DeleteI wonder how "no party preference" affects primary voting. You don't register by party in Illinois; you just show up at the polls and say what primary you want to vote in.
DeleteI'm sure it varies by state. In California they can vote in the Democratic primary, but not in the Republican one. The state lets the individual parties decide.
DeleteWe left the UK for Portland expecting a liberal dream. That wasn’t the reality. [Click] Their account of the visit to the Emergency Room reminded me of our experience in Japan. Our daughter was very young, and one evening she spiked a fever—high enough to frighten inexperienced parents. So we called a taxi and went to the nearest reputable ER. It was a long tie ago and I don’t recall what the treatment consisted of, but I think it was probably just administration of a febrifuge (after a reasonably thorough evaluation). When I went to settle the ER bill, it was less than the taxi fare. Yes, that socialized medicine is dreadful, all right. Now, that’s not to say that medical care is perfect in Japan; they have everything from world-class physicians to quacks, and there is no way to get rid of the latter because there is no chance of winning a malpractice suit. People don’t trust physicians, and consequently when they have a problem they will often go to several of them, until they are satisfied that a particular one is credible. Even if a doctor’s office visit costs a fifth of what it does here, if you visit five doctors the cost is the same. And one hardly escapes a doctor’s office without a bag of barely explained pills because that provides a significant part of the physician’s income.
ReplyDeleteExcuse me, I am sure I told our story here before.
Deletea long tie ago = a long time ago.
Delete“The United States, after battling the coronavirus for eight months, recorded over 99,000 new cases on Friday, a global record. Two dozen states reported their worst weeks for new cases; none showed any improvement,” the New York Times reports.
ReplyDelete“Fourteen states reported single-day records for new cases on Friday: Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Montana, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, Ohio, Colorado and Maine. And three states hit record deaths: Tennessee, Montana and New Mexico.”
I'm damned tired of all this winning.
New Battleground State Polls
ReplyDeleteOctober 31, 2020 By Taegan Goddard
From Public Policy Polling:
TEXAS: Biden 50%, Trump 48%
From Public Policy Polling:
MINNESOTA: Biden 54%, Trump 43%
From Muhlenberg College:
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 44%
From Atlas Intel:
FLORIDA: Biden 49%, Trump 49%
OHIO; COVID cases 215,697 and 5,301 deaths.
ReplyDeleteWhat could a defeated Trump learn from foreign leaders in exile from their countries? [Click] The writer overlooks numerous examples; I think King Farouk [Click] would be a considerably better model for Our Dear Leader.
ReplyDeleteGee! This is the second or third day we haven't received any mail. Does no one love us enough to send us a bill? Or a flyer urging us to vote for or against someone or something? Or maybe the mail carriers are busting their humps to make sure ballots are delivered?
ReplyDeleteWith apologies to Listener, the Keeper of the Blog, I posted a new thread just now. It seemed important.
ReplyDelete