A new Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin shows Ted Cruz leading the GOP presidential primary with 40%, followed by Donald Trump at 30% and John Kasich at 21%.
In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 45%.
One poll does not an election make, especially when the results are within the margin of error. It still looks like the vote will be close. Considering how the Democratic party allocates delegates, that is in many ways more important than who "wins." But still, given the impression -- especially as seen in Michigan -- that late-deciding voters tend to break for Bernie, this increases my hope that Bernie may get at least 55% of the vote. That;s probably about what he will need to significantly cut into Hillary's delegate lead.
If any of the Republicans win the Presidency this Nation will see the biggest case of buyer's remorse in the shortest time on record. I wish the nay-sayers would give it a rest on Bernie. The constant put-downs and "he's doomed" things they sling around are very distracting. It's like trying to thread a needle while wasps buzz around your head. You ignore them, but are constantly aware of the damage they could do.
From talkingpointsmemo.com: “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by four percentage points in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University poll released Wednesday. The poll showed support for Sanders at 49 percent, while Clinton stood at 45 percent. This indicates a modest but steady surge [sic] in support for Sanders over two previous iterations of the Marquette poll, which showed him at 43 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent in January while edging past Clinton 44-43 percent in February… The Marquette University poll was carried out form March 24-28 by live telephone interview. Pollsters surveyed 405 likely Democratic voters with a margin of error of 6.3 percentage points.”
Betcha that if Bernie actually comes out ahead of HRC in Wisconsin, there will be a considerable bandwagon effect in New York and Pennsylvania (among others). ======================= Also from talkingpointsmemo.com: HRC at the Apollo: Americans can’t “hold out for the perfect.”
Methinks that argument is an admission of defeat. I was also reading some stories yesterday about how the biggest pro-HRC SuperPACs are starting to spend huge amounts of money on anti-Trump advertising. Leaving aside the question of whether campaign adverts are effective [cf. Jeb Bush], how much of a bang for the buck will they get by expending their ammunition on a sinking ship? I’d now give odds on a GOP nominee not yet a candidate. An off-menu choice, if you will.
listener said: "Howard Dean told Hillary Clinton early on not to underestimate Bernie."
Reminds me of the story about when Napoleon arrived to take command of the French Army in Italy not long after the Revolution. After meeting with the officers who had been in command, one of them is reputed to have said to another "The little bastard scares me."
I found on the Sanders For President FB page and shared to my page a brief posts showing where Bernie stands in deligates after the first 35 primaries vs where Obama stood at the same point. I actually saw the thing on my page. Going to copy it to re-post here, I find it has vanished. Can't find it on the Bernie page either.
While googling to try and find the same stats, I came across several results that are very depressing and saying bernie can't win. The below from The Guardian at least has the bubious merrit of discussing the super delegate situation.
Cat-- The Guardian is not neutral or objective--it is decidedly pro-Clinton, and slants things that way. It was the same with Corbyn. The BBC is definitely more even-handed. The comparison of Bernie and Obama sounds very interesting; if you find it again, please do post it here.
Bernie is first.
ReplyDeleteWoo-Hoo!
ReplyDeleteA new Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin shows Ted Cruz leading the GOP presidential primary with 40%, followed by Donald Trump at 30% and John Kasich at 21%.
In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 45%.
--Alan
Yes.
DeleteOne poll does not an election make, especially when the results are within the margin of error. It still looks like the vote will be close. Considering how the Democratic party allocates delegates, that is in many ways more important than who "wins." But still, given the impression -- especially as seen in Michigan -- that late-deciding voters tend to break for Bernie, this increases my hope that Bernie may get at least 55% of the vote. That;s probably about what he will need to significantly cut into Hillary's delegate lead.
If any of the Republicans win the Presidency this Nation will see the biggest case of buyer's remorse in the shortest time on record. I wish the nay-sayers would give it a rest on Bernie. The constant put-downs and "he's doomed" things they sling around are very distracting. It's like trying to thread a needle while wasps buzz around your head. You ignore them, but are constantly aware of the damage they could do.
ReplyDeleteFrom talkingpointsmemo.com:
ReplyDelete“Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by four percentage points in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University poll released Wednesday.
The poll showed support for Sanders at 49 percent, while Clinton stood at 45 percent. This indicates a modest but steady surge [sic] in support for Sanders over two previous iterations of the Marquette poll, which showed him at 43 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent in January while edging past Clinton 44-43 percent in February…
The Marquette University poll was carried out form March 24-28 by live telephone interview. Pollsters surveyed 405 likely Democratic voters with a margin of error of 6.3 percentage points.”
Betcha that if Bernie actually comes out ahead of HRC in Wisconsin, there will be a considerable bandwagon effect in New York and Pennsylvania (among others).
=======================
Also from talkingpointsmemo.com:
HRC at the Apollo: Americans can’t “hold out for the perfect.”
Methinks that argument is an admission of defeat. I was also reading some stories yesterday about how the biggest pro-HRC SuperPACs are starting to spend huge amounts of money on anti-Trump advertising. Leaving aside the question of whether campaign adverts are effective [cf. Jeb Bush], how much of a bang for the buck will they get by expending their ammunition on a sinking ship? I’d now give odds on a GOP nominee not yet a candidate. An off-menu choice, if you will.
Now back to my work simulation.
—Alan
Hi, Susan!
ReplyDelete--Alan
listener said:
ReplyDelete"Howard Dean told Hillary Clinton early on not to underestimate Bernie."
Reminds me of the story about when Napoleon arrived to take command of the French Army in Italy not long after the Revolution. After meeting with the officers who had been in command, one of them is reputed to have said to another "The little bastard scares me."
--Alan
Ha! I sincerely hope you aren't likening Bernie to Napoleon! LOL!
DeleteOh, Napoleon is far more quotable...
Delete[grin]
--Alan
Out of the past...
ReplyDeleteHoward Dean: Don’t Underestimate Bernie Sanders—Vermont Public Radio May 11th, 2015 [Click]
Don’t Underestimate Bernie Sanders—The Atlantic, May 6th, 2015 [Click]
--Alan
I found on the Sanders For President FB page and shared to my page a brief posts showing where Bernie stands in deligates after the first 35 primaries vs where Obama stood at the same point. I actually saw the thing on my page. Going to copy it to re-post here, I find it has vanished. Can't find it on the Bernie page either.
ReplyDeleteWhile googling to try and find the same stats, I came across several results that are very depressing and saying bernie can't win. The below from The Guardian at least has the bubious merrit of discussing the super delegate situation.
Even if Sanders wins the popular vote, Clinton could still get the nomination - Click
Cat--
DeleteThe Guardian is not neutral or objective--it is decidedly pro-Clinton, and slants things that way. It was the same with Corbyn. The BBC is definitely more even-handed. The comparison of Bernie and Obama sounds very interesting; if you find it again, please do post it here.
--Alan
Cat—I don’t have time (still at work) to extract the data, but they should all be at these Wikipedia pages:
Delete2008 Dem primaries [Click]
2016 ditto [Click]
—Alan