The dynamics of the 2008 and 2016 primaries are entirely different, except that in both Clinton conceded all caucus states after Super Tuesday to her opponent. In 2008, that was a major reason she was never able to catch up despite narrow victory after narrow victory in the primaries. In 2016, it's why Bernie has a chance without necessarily carrying the primary states by big margins.
The other obvious big difference is that in 2008 California voted on Super Tuesday. It really was Super in 2008. But with that behind her, Clinton had fewer big-delegate opportunities to catch up. In 2016, with New York, then Super East, then California, there are plenty of delegates still to be won.
Oh, yes, Bill--any comparisons must be taken with several grains of salt. The change in California's primary date may not be the elephant in the living room, but it is at least a rhinoceros, and one that has been feeding on what has come before. I am still incredulous that this year's presidential primaries have turned out to be so interesting--not just the stroll to coronation for Jeb Bush and HRC that was widely expected.
A few notes for now… --Alan ========== Polls Shows Wisconsin May Be Close March 31, 2016By Taegan Goddard A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows…On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 43%. ========== Local news note: considerable increase in voter registrations in California, particularly among young people. (Online registration is now very easy--I can personally testify to that.) ============= The Republican National Committee has launched a website to inform the public about what happens in the event of contested GOP convention, the Washington Examiner reported. The website, ConventionFacts.gop, lists party rules regarding the delegates required for a candidate to be nominated to lead the GOP's 2016 convention, as well as the process if no candidate initially meets the requirement. ===========
P.S.: Cat--I will go through the Wikipedia data and work up a comparison of the 2016 and 2008 data to this point--I printed out the data, and I will be cooling my heels in the dentist's waiting room for a bit this afternoon. Taking a few days off work. Last night I was cogitating about how to present the data, and think I have hit on a reasonable method.
They define small donations as "under $200), but it's never clear whether that number refers to single donations or total donations by an individual. If the latter, I am not a "small donor."
Both good articles, Cat; thanks. I rather liked this nugget:
"Bernie Sanders has a lead in raising money from yoga instructors over Hillary Clinton. He has received 209 donations from yoga teachers to Secretary Clinton's 73."
I liked the wag who started an online petition to permit attendees at the GOP convention to all carry firearms, replete with typical NRA and GOP arguments in favor of guns everywhere and anywhere--for safety, of course. Another wag whom I admire is Vermin Supreme--why vote for a pallid imitation when one can have the real thing? (I must admit I only know him by name; I haven't looked up his position papers...)
Comparison of 2008 and 2016 Democratic primary voting patterns. Comparison based on elected pledged delegates, not national convention delegates (which can be rather different), and superdelegates are disregarded. There are about 500 more elected pledged delegates this year. In 2008 Michigan and Florida were penalized but ultimately not ignored altogether because of their rebellious early voting.
One big difference is that the 2008 primaries were front-loaded, and the 2016 primaries are back-loaded. At the end of February 2008 about 60% of the elected delegates had been elected, and at the end of March 2016 it is about 57%.
At the end of February 2008 (ignoring Edwards delegates) Obama had about 52% and Clinton about 48% of the elected pledged delegates.
At the end of March 2016 Sanders has about 45% and Clinton about 55% of the elected pledged delegates (1038 and 1266 of 2304, respectively, a difference or 228). IN April another 731 will be elected, in May 235, and June 781.
In reviewing the 2008 primary, it was close no matter whether one looks at the elected pledged delegates, the national convention pledged delegates or the popular vote (insofar as that can be determined--it's hard so say with caucuses). The superdelegates went with the flow-they didn't change the results, and came down on the same side as the pledged delegates. Obama claimed victory based on pledged and super-delegates on June 3rd (the last day of primaries) and Clinton conceded on June 7th. It was REAL close.
Quote from Wikipedia article about the 2008 contest:
"After the March contests, the Democratic race entered a six-week period with no upcoming contests until April 22. As the campaigns settled in for the long haul, advisors for both candidates escalated their rhetoric and stepped up attacks in their daily conference calls. News reports described the tenor as increasingly "rancorous" and "vitriolic."
Thanks for that great analysis and explanation, Alan! Seeing it all laid out like that makes one realize just how bizarre '08 was, with so many of the contests bunched in the first few weeks. This year it really ain't over till it's over...which is the way it should be, IMO.
Hillary Clinton on Thursday accused Bernie Sanders’ campaign of lying about her in a heated exchange with an environmental activist.
“I am so sick of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it,” the visibly angry Democratic presidential hopeful said, pointing a finger in a woman’s face, in a video posted by Greenpeace.
The exchange came as the woman pressed Clinton on taking donations from the fossil fuel industry and asked if she would reject their campaign contributions in the future.
“I do not have — I have money from people who work for fossil fuel companies,” Clinton responded, before calling the rival campaign's claims lies.
Clinton’s campaign has accepted sums from fossil fuel companies. According to a Huffington Post report from July of last year, most of her campaign’s largest bundlers at the time were lobbyists for the industry.
In a statement, Greenpeace Director Molly Dorozenski said: "Secretary Clinton is conflating Greenpeace with the Sanders campaign, but we are an independent organization, and our research team has assessed the contributions to all Presidential candidates. We have not and will not endorse candidates."
Video here [Click] Sounds like HRC is losing it—definitely not good. And with roughly half the convention delegates yet to be elected...
It's not all that surprising that HRC is fraying around the edges. After all, she apparently believed her PR that *this was her time* and she would just walk through the primary season and be crowned at the convention and presumably crowned again in November. All this contesting must be terribly difficult for her. And then, on top of that, for people to be questioning her? Gracious to goodness but it must all be terribly trying for the poor dear.
In a recent email to her supporters, HRC expressed frustration that she had to fight a two-front battle against both Bernie and Trump. Of course Trump only matters if she and he are the nominees, neither of which is certain.
(I apparently count as a Clinton support on their rolls, although the only time I ever donated to her was after she conceded in 2008.)
Whan that Aprille with his shoures sote The droghte of Marche hath perced to the roote, And bathed every veyne in swich licour. . . .
ReplyDeleteOf which vertu engendred is the flour;
Deletefrom the Prince of Poets. Thanks, Puddle♥
♥ ♡ ♥
ReplyDeleteThe dynamics of the 2008 and 2016 primaries are entirely different, except that in both Clinton conceded all caucus states after Super Tuesday to her opponent. In 2008, that was a major reason she was never able to catch up despite narrow victory after narrow victory in the primaries. In 2016, it's why Bernie has a chance without necessarily carrying the primary states by big margins.
ReplyDeleteThe other obvious big difference is that in 2008 California voted on Super Tuesday. It really was Super in 2008. But with that behind her, Clinton had fewer big-delegate opportunities to catch up. In 2016, with New York, then Super East, then California, there are plenty of delegates still to be won.
Oh, yes, Bill--any comparisons must be taken with several grains of salt. The change in California's primary date may not be the elephant in the living room, but it is at least a rhinoceros, and one that has been feeding on what has come before. I am still incredulous that this year's presidential primaries have turned out to be so interesting--not just the stroll to coronation for Jeb Bush and HRC that was widely expected.
ReplyDeleteA few notes for now…
--Alan
==========
Polls Shows Wisconsin May Be Close
March 31, 2016By Taegan Goddard
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows…On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 43%.
==========
Local news note: considerable increase in voter registrations in California, particularly among young people. (Online registration is now very easy--I can personally testify to that.)
=============
The Republican National Committee has launched a website to inform the public about what happens in the event of contested GOP convention, the Washington Examiner reported. The website, ConventionFacts.gop, lists party rules regarding the delegates required for a candidate to be nominated to lead the GOP's 2016 convention, as well as the process if no candidate initially meets the requirement.
===========
P.S.: Cat--I will go through the Wikipedia data and work up a comparison of the 2016 and 2008 data to this point--I printed out the data, and I will be cooling my heels in the dentist's waiting room for a bit this afternoon. Taking a few days off work. Last night I was cogitating about how to present the data, and think I have hit on a reasonable method.
This is moderately interesting:
ReplyDeleteFive ways Republican bloodbath could end - Click
This is considerably more interesting:
DeleteUS election 2016: Who's funding Trump, Sanders and the rest? - Click
They define small donations as "under $200), but it's never clear whether that number refers to single donations or total donations by an individual. If the latter, I am not a "small donor."
DeleteI noticed they were a bit vague.
DeleteBill--I believe that anyone who donates a total of $200 or more must be reported to the feds, and thus can be looked up in the online database.
DeleteAlan
Both good articles, Cat; thanks. I rather liked this nugget:
Delete"Bernie Sanders has a lead in raising money from yoga instructors over Hillary Clinton. He has received 209 donations from yoga teachers to Secretary Clinton's 73."
--Alan
I liked the wag who started an online petition to permit attendees at the GOP convention to all carry firearms, replete with typical NRA and GOP arguments in favor of guns everywhere and anywhere--for safety, of course. Another wag whom I admire is Vermin Supreme--why vote for a pallid imitation when one can have the real thing? (I must admit I only know him by name; I haven't looked up his position papers...)
Delete--Alan
Alan -- Yes, that's a good argument for this referring to total contributions by an individual. It just seems a bit odd to not be a "small donor."
DeleteComparison of 2008 and 2016 Democratic primary voting patterns. Comparison based on elected pledged delegates, not national convention delegates (which can be rather different), and superdelegates are disregarded. There are about 500 more elected pledged delegates this year. In 2008 Michigan and Florida were penalized but ultimately not ignored altogether because of their rebellious early voting.
ReplyDeleteOne big difference is that the 2008 primaries were front-loaded, and the 2016 primaries are back-loaded. At the end of February 2008 about 60% of the elected delegates had been elected, and at the end of March 2016 it is about 57%.
At the end of February 2008 (ignoring Edwards delegates) Obama had about 52% and Clinton about 48% of the elected pledged delegates.
At the end of March 2016 Sanders has about 45% and Clinton about 55% of the elected pledged delegates (1038 and 1266 of 2304, respectively, a difference or 228). IN April another 731 will be elected, in May 235, and June 781.
In reviewing the 2008 primary, it was close no matter whether one looks at the elected pledged delegates, the national convention pledged delegates or the popular vote (insofar as that can be determined--it's hard so say with caucuses). The superdelegates went with the flow-they didn't change the results, and came down on the same side as the pledged delegates. Obama claimed victory based on pledged and super-delegates on June 3rd (the last day of primaries) and Clinton conceded on June 7th. It was REAL close.
Quote from Wikipedia article about the 2008 contest:
"After the March contests, the Democratic race entered a six-week period with no upcoming contests until April 22. As the campaigns settled in for the long haul, advisors for both candidates escalated their rhetoric and stepped up attacks in their daily conference calls. News reports described the tenor as increasingly "rancorous" and "vitriolic."
Sound familiar?
--Alan
Thanks for that great analysis and explanation, Alan! Seeing it all laid out like that makes one realize just how bizarre '08 was, with so many of the contests bunched in the first few weeks. This year it really ain't over till it's over...which is the way it should be, IMO.
DeleteHillary Clinton on Thursday accused Bernie Sanders’ campaign of lying about her in a heated exchange with an environmental activist.
ReplyDelete“I am so sick of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it,” the visibly angry Democratic presidential hopeful said, pointing a finger in a woman’s face, in a video posted by Greenpeace.
The exchange came as the woman pressed Clinton on taking donations from the fossil fuel industry and asked if she would reject their campaign contributions in the future.
“I do not have — I have money from people who work for fossil fuel companies,” Clinton responded, before calling the rival campaign's claims lies.
Clinton’s campaign has accepted sums from fossil fuel companies. According to a Huffington Post report from July of last year, most of her campaign’s largest bundlers at the time were lobbyists for the industry.
In a statement, Greenpeace Director Molly Dorozenski said: "Secretary Clinton is conflating Greenpeace with the Sanders campaign, but we are an independent organization, and our research team has assessed the contributions to all Presidential candidates. We have not and will not endorse candidates."
Video here [Click] Sounds like HRC is losing it—definitely not good. And with roughly half the convention delegates yet to be elected...
—Alan
It's not all that surprising that HRC is fraying around the edges. After all, she apparently believed her PR that *this was her time* and she would just walk through the primary season and be crowned at the convention and presumably crowned again in November. All this contesting must be terribly difficult for her. And then, on top of that, for people to be questioning her? Gracious to goodness but it must all be terribly trying for the poor dear.
DeleteIn a recent email to her supporters, HRC expressed frustration that she had to fight a two-front battle against both Bernie and Trump. Of course Trump only matters if she and he are the nominees, neither of which is certain.
Delete(I apparently count as a Clinton support on their rolls, although the only time I ever donated to her was after she conceded in 2008.)