Iowa race: With all but a single precinct reporting as of 0600 hrs Pacific Time, it’s Clinton 49.9%, Sanders 49.6%, O’Malley 0.5%, with enough precincts literally decided by the toss of a coin to make the difference, and the number of actual delegates to be decided by another one or two levels of caucuses. In other words, a tie at this time, which could still go either way. Clinton is claiming victory, and Sanders has yet to concede (and he shouldn't, IMO).
With more than 99% of the precinct results in, Clinton led 49.9% to 49.6% over Sanders after seeing an apparently comfortable lead slip. The Associated Press and multiple outlets said the race was simply too close to call, though the Clinton camp claimed a narrow victory.
Ted Cruz: 26%, eight delegates Donald Trump: 23%, seven delegates Marco Rubio: 23%, seven delegates Ben Carson: 10%, three delegates Rand Paul, Jeb Bush: one delegate each. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum: no delegates
Democratic vote, 99% reported:
Hillary Clinton: 49.8%, 22 delegates Bernie Sanders: 49.6%, 21 delegates Martin O'Malley: 0.5%, no delegates
From what I read today, Bernie is managing public perceptions and the news media very well. One commentator said that it was Bernie's speech last night that sounded like a victory speech, not HRC's. Everything upbeat; when he boarded his charter jet ("Bern Force One" no less!) the staff cheered him vigorously. It's also interesting that it is an Eastern Airlines jet; the name, logo etc. were bought out of bankruptcy by a new charter company that just started flying this past year.
This morning when I stopped at the post office to check my mail, the janitor and I exchanged pleasantries, then almost immediately fell to talking about the results from Iowa; the clerk sorting mail into the boxes overhead and chimed in, too; suddenly there were three people talking who liked Bernie, who had never discussed politics before. A good sign. Later in the morning I had a call from an attorney who had retained me, telling me that the [civil] case had settled. We were shooting the bull a bit, and the Iowa results came up. He said he liked Bernie, but wasn't sure he would be as strong in the general election as HRC. But his son is working for Bernie in Michigan. (I joked bout good genes.) He was surprised when I quoted Gene Debs to him: "It's better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it." and he immediately agreed ("That's right."). It seems to me that if I had those sorts of conversations this morning, many other must have too.
I was thinking that the youth turnout for Bernie is widely remarked on, and that perhaps I could do something to publicize the boomer contingent. Another bumper sticker, like "Geezers for Bernie?" Nah, pejorative, ageist and sexist. Hey--what about "Boomers for Bernie?" It turns out that there are a couple such bumper stickers, but I don't care for the looks of them. And there are two Facebook pages--Boomers for Bernie and Baby Boomers for Bernie, I think the names were. Somebody had said that the old folks for Bernie were old hippies; but I go back further--born in 1946. The Beat Generation was a strong influence on me, although I didn't realize it at the time; the hippies (who were also strongly influenced by the Beats) came along later. I also lived in the time of, and was strongly influenced by, "California Consciousness." But I couldn't have been called a hippie. LIke I am a social democrat rather than a democratic socialist--but the two are close enough on the political spectrum to cooperate easily.
Well, enough rattling on. Thanks for the "delegate" totals from the BBC, Cat!
I also found myself humming "Hold the Fort, For We Are Coming"--half-remembered snippets of both the Civil War version and the labor union version. The right-thinking among us old boomers have been waiting for reinforcements for a very long time...could this truly be the time day? "Help will come, when e'er it's needed, Cheer, my comrades, cheer!"
Hilary is trumpeting victory to her followers. But the media (HuffPost and Chicago Tribune) are describing her "barely edging" Bernie and talking about how far he has come already.
As for discussions with random people: At a science fiction book discussion group a week and a half ago, the conversation turned to politics -- starting with how afraid people were of Trump. One person remarked that of Cruz, Trump, Hilary, and Bernie, there wasn't one he would trust with his car. Then, after a moment, he said maybe he would trust Bernie with his car. I think that is a good illustration of why Bernie would be the Democrats' strongest candidate. Although it also supports the idea that any Democrat could beat either Trump or Cruz.
And speaking of Geezers for Bernie, I'm 10 years older than you. Not a Boomer. The generation in the gap.
People Power is No. One today.
ReplyDeleteIowa race: With all but a single precinct reporting as of 0600 hrs Pacific Time, it’s Clinton 49.9%, Sanders 49.6%, O’Malley 0.5%, with enough precincts literally decided by the toss of a coin to make the difference, and the number of actual delegates to be decided by another one or two levels of caucuses. In other words, a tie at this time, which could still go either way. Clinton is claiming victory, and Sanders has yet to concede (and he shouldn't, IMO).
—Alan
Nor should he. There's nothing worse than a premature concession speech.
DeleteNor should he, because in a primary -- unlike a winner-rake-all general election -- a virtual tie is a virtual tie.
DeleteLooking at The Guardian right now:
ReplyDeleteWith more than 99% of the precinct results in, Clinton led 49.9% to 49.6% over Sanders after seeing an apparently comfortable lead slip. The Associated Press and multiple outlets said the race was simply too close to call, though the Clinton camp claimed a narrow victory.
I hear they just called it for Clinton. BOO
ReplyDeleteFrom the BBC
ReplyDeleteRepublican vote, 99% reported:
Ted Cruz: 26%, eight delegates
Donald Trump: 23%, seven delegates
Marco Rubio: 23%, seven delegates
Ben Carson: 10%, three delegates
Rand Paul, Jeb Bush: one delegate each.
Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum: no delegates
Democratic vote, 99% reported:
Hillary Clinton: 49.8%, 22 delegates
Bernie Sanders: 49.6%, 21 delegates
Martin O'Malley: 0.5%, no delegates
source: The Associated Press
From what I read today, Bernie is managing public perceptions and the news media very well. One commentator said that it was Bernie's speech last night that sounded like a victory speech, not HRC's. Everything upbeat; when he boarded his charter jet ("Bern Force One" no less!) the staff cheered him vigorously. It's also interesting that it is an Eastern Airlines jet; the name, logo etc. were bought out of bankruptcy by a new charter company that just started flying this past year.
ReplyDeleteThis morning when I stopped at the post office to check my mail, the janitor and I exchanged pleasantries, then almost immediately fell to talking about the results from Iowa; the clerk sorting mail into the boxes overhead and chimed in, too; suddenly there were three people talking who liked Bernie, who had never discussed politics before. A good sign. Later in the morning I had a call from an attorney who had retained me, telling me that the [civil] case had settled. We were shooting the bull a bit, and the Iowa results came up. He said he liked Bernie, but wasn't sure he would be as strong in the general election as HRC. But his son is working for Bernie in Michigan. (I joked bout good genes.) He was surprised when I quoted Gene Debs to him: "It's better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it." and he immediately agreed ("That's right."). It seems to me that if I had those sorts of conversations this morning, many other must have too.
I was thinking that the youth turnout for Bernie is widely remarked on, and that perhaps I could do something to publicize the boomer contingent. Another bumper sticker, like "Geezers for Bernie?" Nah, pejorative, ageist and sexist. Hey--what about "Boomers for Bernie?" It turns out that there are a couple such bumper stickers, but I don't care for the looks of them. And there are two Facebook pages--Boomers for Bernie and Baby Boomers for Bernie, I think the names were. Somebody had said that the old folks for Bernie were old hippies; but I go back further--born in 1946. The Beat Generation was a strong influence on me, although I didn't realize it at the time; the hippies (who were also strongly influenced by the Beats) came along later. I also lived in the time of, and was strongly influenced by, "California Consciousness." But I couldn't have been called a hippie. LIke I am a social democrat rather than a democratic socialist--but the two are close enough on the political spectrum to cooperate easily.
Well, enough rattling on. Thanks for the "delegate" totals from the BBC, Cat!
--Alan
I also found myself humming "Hold the Fort, For We Are Coming"--half-remembered snippets of both the Civil War version and the labor union version. The right-thinking among us old boomers have been waiting for reinforcements for a very long time...could this truly be the time day? "Help will come, when e'er it's needed, Cheer, my comrades, cheer!"
Delete--Alan
"could this truly be the day?"
Delete========================
Re "Hold the Fort:"
Union version [Click]
It seems I was mistaken about a Civil War version, but here is the story and the gospel version. [Click]
--Alan
Hilary is trumpeting victory to her followers. But the media (HuffPost and Chicago Tribune) are describing her "barely edging" Bernie and talking about how far he has come already.
DeleteAs for discussions with random people: At a science fiction book discussion group a week and a half ago, the conversation turned to politics -- starting with how afraid people were of Trump. One person remarked that of Cruz, Trump, Hilary, and Bernie, there wasn't one he would trust with his car. Then, after a moment, he said maybe he would trust Bernie with his car. I think that is a good illustration of why Bernie would be the Democrats' strongest candidate. Although it also supports the idea that any Democrat could beat either Trump or Cruz.
And speaking of Geezers for Bernie, I'm 10 years older than you. Not a Boomer. The generation in the gap.