Wow. I just realised I'm on the edge of my seat. Here we are facing Iowa again, with a Vermonter vying for the lead. It still hurts that the Dems shafted Dean in Iowa. I feel like I've been holding back from all things political ever since. I feel it strongly today. And this morning CNN reported that Hillary is ahead 45 - 42 presently in polling. Wake me up when it's over. Sigh. C'mon Iowa, show the DNC and the media what the People want!!
What's at stake in Iowa is just the psychological boost of "winning," although that's important. It's pretty much a given that the delegates will be almost evenly split in either case.
The thing is, Bill, that Bernie is likely going to come out stronger in Iowa than in the south. If he takes Iowa that assures his candidacy is still in play. If he loses Iowa that's a ticket for those who favor Hillary to say he obviously cannot win the south, and claim victory.
Iowa doesn't predict South Carolina. Perhaps unfortunately. And Nevada is something else again. That's why the four early states are so diverse. I'm not clear what you mean by "claim victory." Nobody can claim victory the primary before Super Tuesday, if then. But as I said, whoever comes out ahead in Iowa will get a psychological boost independent of the delegates won.
I didn't say they would have victory, just that they'd claim it. And by "they" I guess I mean the DNC and anyone in the party who will choose the nominee. The psychological aspects of politics are as central as the emotional aspects of the stock exchange. I often wish we could recreate our political process to be nearer to what the founders envisioned, without parties and with many candidates. At any rate, such a revolution would be wise to begin with Bernie Sanders and campaign finance reform.
I see that Bernie raised twenty megabucks during January--compared to HRC's thirty-five megabucks during the last three months of 2015. I recently had one of Bernie's e-mails with a running tally of donations--they were simply pouring in. And the weather looks OK for caucus night...
--Alan
(Remaining hopeful and remembering what that official in HRC's 2008 campaign said about being ahead by double digits in SC until the day following Iowa--when the bottom fell out. Bernie has been pursuing an active ground game in SC for months.)
Wow. I just realised I'm on the edge of my seat. Here we are facing Iowa again, with a Vermonter vying for the lead. It still hurts that the Dems shafted Dean in Iowa. I feel like I've been holding back from all things political ever since. I feel it strongly today. And this morning CNN reported that Hillary is ahead 45 - 42 presently in polling. Wake me up when it's over. Sigh. C'mon Iowa, show the DNC and the media what the People want!!
ReplyDeleteBut surely that's within the margin of error? And besides the MSM see what they want to see, not what is actually there. I have faith in Bernie.
DeleteWhat's at stake in Iowa is just the psychological boost of "winning," although that's important. It's pretty much a given that the delegates will be almost evenly split in either case.
DeleteThe thing is, Bill, that Bernie is likely going to come out stronger in Iowa than in the south. If he takes Iowa that assures his candidacy is still in play. If he loses Iowa that's a ticket for those who favor Hillary to say he obviously cannot win the south, and claim victory.
DeleteIowa doesn't predict South Carolina. Perhaps unfortunately. And Nevada is something else again. That's why the four early states are so diverse. I'm not clear what you mean by "claim victory." Nobody can claim victory the primary before Super Tuesday, if then. But as I said, whoever comes out ahead in Iowa will get a psychological boost independent of the delegates won.
DeleteI didn't say they would have victory, just that they'd claim it. And by "they" I guess I mean the DNC and anyone in the party who will choose the nominee. The psychological aspects of politics are as central as the emotional aspects of the stock exchange. I often wish we could recreate our political process to be nearer to what the founders envisioned, without parties and with many candidates. At any rate, such a revolution would be wise to begin with Bernie Sanders and campaign finance reform.
DeleteKeeping ma fingers crossed for Bernie!
ReplyDeleteBack from behind the firewall at work and resting up a bit before hitting the sack early. I noticed these stories:
ReplyDeleteThe New Republican Fault Line [Click] Now this does seem to make sense of what the GOP has done to itself.
The Republican Establishment's Delegate Problem [Click] Decide in haste, repent at leisure.
The Democrats Face a Revolution [Click]
I see that Bernie raised twenty megabucks during January--compared to HRC's thirty-five megabucks during the last three months of 2015. I recently had one of Bernie's e-mails with a running tally of donations--they were simply pouring in. And the weather looks OK for caucus night...
--Alan
(Remaining hopeful and remembering what that official in HRC's 2008 campaign said about being ahead by double digits in SC until the day following Iowa--when the bottom fell out. Bernie has been pursuing an active ground game in SC for months.)
Here are a few more...
Delete--Alan
Iowa caucus results are as unpredictable as this bizarre election season Gary Younge[Click]
US election: Confessions of a four-time caucus correspondent
[Click]