Took too long posting on the last thread, and finally got this posted at 1:06 a.m., so re-posting:
Currently showing:
Biden: 48.45% Sanders: 19.91 Steyer: 11.34
Steyer came in third with double digits, far better than any of the remaining candidates. Dropping out now doesn't make sense to me. As I said before, it's Gabbard who should bow out if anyone, with 1.28%, her worst showing yet.
The next question is about Klobuchar. I think she is counting on her home state of Minnesota to be her "firewall." But Bernie is campaigning vigorously there. If he beats her, I can't see any reason for her to continue her campaign.
Thanks for your explanation of Steyer's exit on the last thread, Bill. That makes perfect sense.
It would also makes sense for Klobuchar to bow out if she can't carry her own state and, frankly, for Warren to do the same if she can't carry hers.But that would leave no serious female candidates, which would cause a furor. So I should think at least one of them will hang in for now.
Actually, I heard on CNN that Biden asked Klobuchar to stay in the race until after Super Tuesday to keep Bernie from doing better in Minnesota. Biden may expect that she will throw her delegates to him later too.
I note that a lot of (most, actually) news organizations and “pundits” are psychologically not prepared to deal with Bernie doing well; there is a lot of whistling past the graveyard. The most notable thing I see in the results of the South Carolina primary is that every candidate but Biden and Bernie got skunked. It seems ironic that Trump may be taken down by such a little thing as a virus.
Wouldyoubelieve, that is a tiny town of about 1300 people about 45 minutes NE of Burlington, and we lived there in 1982 on a very old 100 acre farm. Our fifth child was born at home in that old farmhouse.
Those are mighty impressive numbers! But we mustn't become complacent. Though not unexpected, Biden's win in SC will embolden the commentariat to bash Bernie even more. Combine that with the natural bounce of a solid win, and Biden may suddenly seem like the juggernaut, Mr. Inevitable and Unbeatable. It is highly unfortunate that the next round is Super Tuesday! I've always disliked the concept. Now, Biden may well bounce right through those fourteen states and, if he does, well, nothing succeeds like success. So, we have to keep donating to Bernie! We have to raise even more money in March than in February. But I'll freely admit, I'm not only majorly pissed off by Biden's strong showing yesterday, I'm also very apprehensive. The last thing we want is for Biden to gain legitimacy, but I'm afraid that's just what's going to happen.
The more Biden speaks in public the more he will destroy his legitimacy himself. His goofs, gaffes and lies, his obvious confusion about which town or state he is in will be undeniable the more he is heard.
I think Joe is certainly going to get some wins in the smaller Super Tuesday states, but I am sufficiently sanguine about Bernie's performance in the polls to think that Joe will fall farther and farther behind in the delegate count. It seems entirely possible that Bernie will win ALL of California's regular delegates--which will certainly be a big influence on the state's superdelegates.
In terms of the timeline for contributions, it may be important to remember that almost all the big states will have voted by March 17. New York and Pennsylvania vote the end of April, but other than that there will be no state with more than 100 delegates voting after two weeks from Tuesday.
From The Atlantic:Young People Don’t Care About the U.S.S.R. [Click] “Older people still see socialism and communism as dangerous, authoritarian political systems, whereas younger people are more likely to see them as economic systems, and to care far less one way or another.” I suppose that would include most people who were less than 10 years old when the Berlin Wall fell, i.e. 41 years old.
From The Atlantic:Young People Don’t Care About the U.S.S.R. [Click] “Older people still see socialism and communism as dangerous, authoritarian political systems, whereas younger people are more likely to see them as economic systems, and to care far less one way or another.” I suppose that would include most people who were less than 10 years old when the Berlin Wall fell, i.e. 41 years old.
Latest polls [Click] show Bernie well ahead in Texas, running slightly ahead in North Carolina and Massachusetts.
Biden’s Pyrrhic victory [Click] ”Blocking Sanders with Biden is tantamount to writing off the Democratic party’s own youth activist wing.”
At this very moment NHK (the Japanese equivalent of the BBC) is doing an explainer about Bernie, including his personal history.
The thing that I don't believe the Democratic Establishment and the DNC grasp is that what they are doing is telling us that we are too stupid and uninformed to chose our own nominee. Their patriarchal "Dad (and Mom) know best" really ticks me off. Most especially because they have NO CLUE of what life is like for the majority of us. They are patronizing and insulting and it is clear that *their* priority is to maintain their OWN control and status, no matter the harm to the rest of us.
I think that is exactly the same mistake the GOP establishment made in executing Nixon's Southern Strategy. The establishment figured they could con the yokels into supporting them while remaining in control, but eventually the "yokels" figured out that they were the ones who held the strength in the party--and were pissed off at being held in contempt by their "leaders."
BTW googling Super Tuesday 2020, the first result that came up was a paid result, essentially an ad to vote for Bernie. I wonder how much that cost? And how effective is it? I must say, it warmed my partizan heart, even though it was irrelevant to my actual search.
Jenny Marder @jennymarder There’s evidence that the drop in nitrogen dioxide, which comes from cars and trucks, power plants and industrial facilities, “is at least partly related to the economic slowdown following the outbreak of coronavirus.” Fascinating. Quote Tweet NASA Earth @NASAEarth · Feb 28 Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china #NASA
--- I guess it's an ill wind that blows nobody good but, really, what a terrible cost!
Four years ago, Debbie Wasserman Schultz abused her power as chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to impede the presidential primary campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders. As we know from the DNC Wikileaks, her DNC was also illegally surveilling our campaign against her.
Today we are greeted with news that Wasserman Schultz just endorsed Joe Biden for the 2020 race. To many of us, this seems like déjà vu all over again.
It was also reported that Biden outperformed the exit polls in yesterday’s South Carolina primary, which uses electronic scanning machines they bought from Election Systems & Software (ES&S) for $51 million. We already know from our 2018 election against Wasserman Schultz how easy it is to rig the software of these electronic voting machines – either by hacking in remotely or by an insider manipulating the source code.
South Carolina also used new ExpressVote machines supplied by ES&S, the largest and most shadowy company in the highly concentrated voting machine industry. ES&S is owned by an Omaha, Nebraska-based hedge fund, which we know little about.
We have already received reports from a leading election expert in South Carolina that perhaps 10% of these ExpressVote machines failed in yesterday’s primary. We’ve learned from our rigged elections in South Florida that we cannot trust any electronic voting machines manufactured by ES&S and that we certainly cannot trust Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Thank you for your continuing support, and for helping us stand up for election integrity.
Sincerely, Tim Canova
Progress For All, Inc. P.O. Box 222073 Hollywood, FL 33022
I wouldn't trust any electronic voting machines as far as I could throw a bull by the tail. Permanent paper ballots are the only way to go. I remember seeing a demonstration of how the old lever voting machines in use some places back east could be "adjusted" to give the desired result.
Seems to me what is needed is a confluence of as many technologies and methodologies as possible because, so to speak, the flesh is weak. The more cross checks and safeguards, the better.
That surprises me a bit. But it may be that he just didn't have the resources to continue. He put pretty much everything he had into Iowa and New Hampshire but didn't get the bump he needed to make the cut in Nevada or South Carolina. Without an established donor base, it's easy to imagine there was simply not enough money to mount a meaningful Super Tuesday campaign.
It surprises me too, Bill. It was in the news four days ago that he cancelled four appearances in Florida, three of which were fundraisers, on account of illness (said to be a cold, but I have doubts about the reliability of that). I expected him to continue through Super Tuesday at least. His supporters will be looking for a home.
It's just as well. We will now get to see whether his exit benefits Bernie or Biden more. I know several people who were set to vote for him, but love Bernie too, and voted for Bernie in 2016. We'll see, I guess.
Aabout five or ten minutes ago there was a segment on the NHK [US time] evening news about Buttigieg dropping out, including an excerpt on his speech announcing it; I think he put as good a face on it as anyone could have--no burning of bridges, no badmouthing anyone, unite party to defeat Trump.
Took too long posting on the last thread, and finally got this posted at 1:06 a.m., so re-posting:
ReplyDeleteCurrently showing:
Biden: 48.45%
Sanders: 19.91
Steyer: 11.34
Steyer came in third with double digits, far better than any of the remaining candidates. Dropping out now doesn't make sense to me. As I said before, it's Gabbard who should bow out if anyone, with 1.28%, her worst showing yet.
Replied on the last thread
DeleteThe next question is about Klobuchar. I think she is counting on her home state of Minnesota to be her "firewall." But Bernie is campaigning vigorously there. If he beats her, I can't see any reason for her to continue her campaign.
DeleteThanks for your explanation of Steyer's exit on the last thread, Bill. That makes perfect sense.
DeleteIt would also makes sense for Klobuchar to bow out if she can't carry her own state and, frankly, for Warren to do the same if she can't carry hers.But that would leave no serious female candidates, which would cause a furor. So I should think at least one of them will hang in for now.
Actually, I heard on CNN that Biden asked Klobuchar to stay in the race until after Super Tuesday to keep Bernie from doing better in Minnesota. Biden may expect that she will throw her delegates to him later too.
DeleteYick! Guess it's all in the nature of horse trading, but that really turns me off.
DeleteLA Times: Bernie Sanders isn’t going to destroy the Democratic Party. He just might save it [Click]
ReplyDeleteHear, hear!
DeleteHow Gunnison, Colorado escaped the first two waves of the Spanish flu. [Click] Fletcher, VT mentioned as another example.
ReplyDelete‘The worst-case scenario for coronavirus is likely’ [Click] Dr. Jonathan Quick: ‘It’s critical not to try to mislead the population.’
‘No evidence of fraud’ in Morales poll victory, say US researchers [Click]
I note that a lot of (most, actually) news organizations and “pundits” are psychologically not prepared to deal with Bernie doing well; there is a lot of whistling past the graveyard. The most notable thing I see in the results of the South Carolina primary is that every candidate but Biden and Bernie got skunked. It seems ironic that Trump may be taken down by such a little thing as a virus.
According to H.G. Wells, the mighty and ruthless Martians were destroyed by humble microbes. The analogy is far from exact (*grin*), but there it is.
DeleteI had forgotten that, Cat; thank you for the reminder!
DeleteFLETCHER, VERMONT!!
DeleteWouldyoubelieve, that is a tiny town of about 1300 people about 45 minutes NE of Burlington, and we lived there in 1982 on a very old 100 acre farm. Our fifth child was born at home in that old farmhouse.
Did I point you to some history you didn't know?
DeleteIndeed! The town is so small is hasn’t even a library or store or school. No place to research or catch town news.
DeleteI suppose that everyone here has received the campaign e-mail about Bernie's February fundraising. It sure sounds good to me.
ReplyDeleteThose are mighty impressive numbers! But we mustn't become complacent. Though not unexpected, Biden's win in SC will embolden the commentariat to bash Bernie even more. Combine that with the natural bounce of a solid win, and Biden may suddenly seem like the juggernaut, Mr. Inevitable and Unbeatable. It is highly unfortunate that the next round is Super Tuesday! I've always disliked the concept. Now, Biden may well bounce right through those fourteen states and, if he does, well, nothing succeeds like success. So, we have to keep donating to Bernie! We have to raise even more money in March than in February. But I'll freely admit, I'm not only majorly pissed off by Biden's strong showing yesterday, I'm also very apprehensive. The last thing we want is for Biden to gain legitimacy, but I'm afraid that's just what's going to happen.
DeleteThe more Biden speaks in public the more he will destroy his legitimacy himself. His goofs, gaffes and lies, his obvious confusion about which town or state he is in will be undeniable the more he is heard.
DeleteI think Joe is certainly going to get some wins in the smaller Super Tuesday states, but I am sufficiently sanguine about Bernie's performance in the polls to think that Joe will fall farther and farther behind in the delegate count. It seems entirely possible that Bernie will win ALL of California's regular delegates--which will certainly be a big influence on the state's superdelegates.
DeleteScroll down and look at the graph of poll averages vs time. [Click]
DeleteIn terms of the timeline for contributions, it may be important to remember that almost all the big states will have voted by March 17. New York and Pennsylvania vote the end of April, but other than that there will be no state with more than 100 delegates voting after two weeks from Tuesday.
DeleteThanks for the reminder, Bill.
DeleteFrom The Atlantic: Young People Don’t Care About the U.S.S.R. [Click] “Older people still see socialism and communism as dangerous, authoritarian political systems, whereas younger people are more likely to see them as economic systems, and to care far less one way or another.” I suppose that would include most people who were less than 10 years old when the Berlin Wall fell, i.e. 41 years old.
ReplyDeleteThere are also those of us old enough to remember Britain's swing into the Socialist camp.
DeleteFrom The Atlantic: Young People Don’t Care About the U.S.S.R. [Click] “Older people still see socialism and communism as dangerous, authoritarian political systems, whereas younger people are more likely to see them as economic systems, and to care far less one way or another.” I suppose that would include most people who were less than 10 years old when the Berlin Wall fell, i.e. 41 years old.
ReplyDeleteLatest polls [Click] show Bernie well ahead in Texas, running slightly ahead in North Carolina and Massachusetts.
Biden’s Pyrrhic victory [Click] ”Blocking Sanders with Biden is tantamount to writing off the Democratic party’s own youth activist wing.”
At this very moment NHK (the Japanese equivalent of the BBC) is doing an explainer about Bernie, including his personal history.
The thing that I don't believe the Democratic Establishment and the DNC grasp is that what they are doing is telling us that we are too stupid and uninformed to chose our own nominee. Their patriarchal "Dad (and Mom) know best" really ticks me off. Most especially because they have NO CLUE of what life is like for the majority of us. They are patronizing and insulting and it is clear that *their* priority is to maintain their OWN control and status, no matter the harm to the rest of us.
ReplyDeleteI think that is exactly the same mistake the GOP establishment made in executing Nixon's Southern Strategy. The establishment figured they could con the yokels into supporting them while remaining in control, but eventually the "yokels" figured out that they were the ones who held the strength in the party--and were pissed off at being held in contempt by their "leaders."
DeleteI agree with you, Susan.
DeleteSusan, listen to the link I posted of Bernie on the morning show This Week. He addresses this very thing!
DeleteI posted it today at 1:34pm.
DeleteThis looks like a useful page:
ReplyDelete<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Super_Tuesday_primaries,_2020</a>Super Tuesday Primaries</a> - Click
BTW googling Super Tuesday 2020, the first result that came up was a paid result, essentially an ad to vote for Bernie. I wonder how much that cost? And how effective is it? I must say, it warmed my partizan heart, even though it was irrelevant to my actual search.
Super Tuesday Primaries. Editing the link to make it clickable.
DeleteOops! Sorry about that. Thanks, Bill.
DeleteScroll down and look at the graph of poll averages vs time. [Click]
ReplyDeleteJudge Rules Cuccinelli’s Appointment Was Illegal [Click] “Violated the Federal Vacancies Reform Act.” Might we reasonably expect some more such decisions?
Bernie did so well on This Week this morning:
ReplyDeletehttps://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/sen-bernie-sanders-69318364
Seen on Twitter:
ReplyDeleteJenny Marder @jennymarder
There’s evidence that the drop in nitrogen dioxide, which comes from cars and trucks, power plants and industrial facilities, “is at least partly related to the economic slowdown following the outbreak of coronavirus.” Fascinating.
Quote Tweet
NASA Earth @NASAEarth
· Feb 28
Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china
#NASA
---
I guess it's an ill wind that blows nobody good but, really, what a terrible cost!
From my inbox:
ReplyDeleteDear Friend,
Four years ago, Debbie Wasserman Schultz abused her power as chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to impede the presidential primary campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders. As we know from the DNC Wikileaks, her DNC was also illegally surveilling our campaign against her.
Today we are greeted with news that Wasserman Schultz just endorsed Joe Biden for the 2020 race. To many of us, this seems like déjà vu all over again.
It was also reported that Biden outperformed the exit polls in yesterday’s South Carolina primary, which uses electronic scanning machines they bought from Election Systems & Software (ES&S) for $51 million. We already know from our 2018 election against Wasserman Schultz how easy it is to rig the software of these electronic voting machines – either by hacking in remotely or by an insider manipulating the source code.
South Carolina also used new ExpressVote machines supplied by ES&S, the largest and most shadowy company in the highly concentrated voting machine industry. ES&S is owned by an Omaha, Nebraska-based hedge fund, which we know little about.
We have already received reports from a leading election expert in South Carolina that perhaps 10% of these ExpressVote machines failed in yesterday’s primary. We’ve learned from our rigged elections in South Florida that we cannot trust any electronic voting machines manufactured by ES&S and that we certainly cannot trust Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Thank you for your continuing support, and for helping us stand up for election integrity.
Sincerely,
Tim Canova
Progress For All, Inc.
P.O. Box 222073
Hollywood, FL 33022
WOW.
DeleteI wouldn't trust any electronic voting machines as far as I could throw a bull by the tail. Permanent paper ballots are the only way to go. I remember seeing a demonstration of how the old lever voting machines in use some places back east could be "adjusted" to give the desired result.
DeleteAnd as far as I'm concerned it is far too easy to "lose" paper ballots unless there is an independent digital record.
DeleteSeems to me what is needed is a confluence of as many technologies and methodologies as possible because, so to speak, the flesh is weak. The more cross checks and safeguards, the better.
DeleteBill, Cat--points well taken.
DeleteJust heard Buttigieg is out. YES!!!
ReplyDeleteThat surprises me a bit. But it may be that he just didn't have the resources to continue. He put pretty much everything he had into Iowa and New Hampshire but didn't get the bump he needed to make the cut in Nevada or South Carolina. Without an established donor base, it's easy to imagine there was simply not enough money to mount a meaningful Super Tuesday campaign.
DeleteIt surprises me too, Bill. It was in the news four days ago that he cancelled four appearances in Florida, three of which were fundraisers, on account of illness (said to be a cold, but I have doubts about the reliability of that). I expected him to continue through Super Tuesday at least. His supporters will be looking for a home.
DeleteNew York Times: “After raising more than $76 million in 2019, an astonishing haul for a mayor with no national profile, Mr. Buttigieg spent nearly all his treasure in Iowa and New Hampshire.” [Click]
DeleteFrankly, it surprised me too. The money angle makes sense though.
DeleteIt's just as well. We will now get to see whether his exit benefits Bernie or Biden more. I know several people who were set to vote for him, but love Bernie too, and voted for Bernie in 2016. We'll see, I guess.
DeleteAabout five or ten minutes ago there was a segment on the NHK [US time] evening news about Buttigieg dropping out, including an excerpt on his speech announcing it; I think he put as good a face on it as anyone could have--no burning of bridges, no badmouthing anyone, unite party to defeat Trump.
DeleteI am reminded that Gene Debs' campaign train was nicknamed "The Red Special," although it wasn't painted red (more's the pity).
DeleteThis is something impressive I hadn’t heard about: Bernie Sanders Is Winning His War on Cable News [Click] They have built up and are running their own media shop.
ReplyDeleteGood for them!
DeleteI went looking for a photo of The Red Special, and found this: Hellraisers Journal: From the International Socialist Review: “The Tour of the Red Special” by Charles Lapworth [Click] The first photo is really dandy! The story is, too. And it ends with a YouTube video of We Will Sing One Song by Joe Hill.
ReplyDelete