Monday, March 02, 2020

Eve of Super Tuesday




71 comments:

  1. listener--I just got around to watching that video of Bernie on This Week that you posted yesterday. Yes, that was good! Thank you.

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  2. Super Tuesday States polls per realclearpolitics.com except as noted.
    (Don’t reflect Buttigieg and Steyer withdrawals.)
    [Numbers in square brackets = pledged delegates]
    Results of first four contests (IA, NH, NV, SC): Biden 54, Buttigieg 26, Klobuchar 7, Bernie 60, Warren 8.
    Total Super Tuesday delegates: 1344

    Alabama[52]—fivethirtyeight.com estimates clear Biden win, Bernie will get a few delegates.
    Arkansas[31]—Bloomberg & Biden tied, Sanders in 3rd place
    California[415] may be a clean sweep for Bernie
    Colorado[67]—Sanders strong lead
    Maine[24]—Bernie strong lead
    Massachusetts[91]—Sanders in the lead
    Minnesota[75]—Sanders a little behind Klobuchar
    North Carolina[110]—Biden and Sanders close
    Oklahoma[37]—Biden & Bloomberg tied, Bernie 13-14%
    Tennessee[64]—fivethirtyeight.com estimates clear Biden win, Bernie not shut out.
    Texas[228]—Sanders leads, Biden & Bloomberg >15%
    Utah[29]—Sanders strong lead
    Vermont[16]—Bernie running away with it
    Virginia[99]—Sanders in the lead

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    1. Thanks, Alan. I woke up in a terrible state and it's only going to get worse till all the results are in. But your list helps.

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  3. Sanders thunders into California [Click] There is one poll out today showing Bloomberg at 16%, but it is an outlier; all the others show him below 15%.

    A new Boston Globe/Suffolk poll in Massachusetts finds Rep. Joseph Kennedy is leading Sen. Edward Markey in the Democratic contest for Senate, 42% to 36% (within the margin of uncertainty). [Click] Cat—Wikipedia’s article on Markey sounds very good; I don’t find much of anything on Kennedy’s political positions.

    Peter Beinart: The Two Things That Sunk Buttigieg’s Candidacy [Click] “The changes in the primaries that made it harder for the former South Bend mayor to succeed also constitute progress for his party.”

    Where Will Pete Buttigieg’s Voters Go? [Click] Some interesting observations.

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    1. The Markey/Kennedy numbers are discouraging though, as you say, they're within the margin of error. Kennedy seems popular with younger voters, the under-fifty crowd. As far as I can tell he's been a satisfactory congressman, with forward-looking ideas. But I see no reason to trade in Markey, who has had a fine career both in the House and in the Senate. Kennedy has the advantage of star power. As well as name recognition, he palled (sp?) around with Beto O'Rourke. They were quite the FB phenom for a while. That sort of thing helps in today's Internet age.

      As to the article about Buttigieg's voters: Naturally, I'd much rather see them go to Warren than Biden. But all this talk of white, college educated voters being anti Bernie gets me hot under the collar. All of us, here, are white, college educated voters, and we've been solidly for Bernie for years. Are we so different from, so out of touch with, other white, college educated voters? ARG!

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    2. On first mention and at one point later, the article adds the adjective "suburban." AFAIK, none of use live in a "typical" suburb. Oak Park is technically a suburb but feels more like an academically oriented city neighborhood with highly prized local self-government. (At least in older metropolitan areas, different suburbs are different.) And the fact is that I don't feel I have that much in common with most DuPage County residents living in the post-WWII suburbs that correspond to most people's picture of suburbia.

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  4. Since I opted out of all emails, I am just seeing this number!

    Bernie campaign raised $46.5m in February. Average donation $21.

    Can you hear us now, DNC?!

    https://www.wcax.com/content/news/Sen-Sanders-campaign-raised-45-568392731.html

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    1. They don't care. He could raise 46 billion in one month and they would still want nothing to do with him. The corporatists and the Clintonistas are scared out of their minds by Bernie. Come to think of it, they probably get more scared, the more money he raises. Such people are always afraid of a revolution. The fact that this is a peaceful, political revolution rather than the type with AK47s and guillotines doesn't make them any more comfortable.

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    2. They should embrace this Revolution so it doesn’t become that other kind!

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    3. You would think. *shrug*

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  5. Breaking!

    DFA just endorsed Bernie.

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    1. They join Common Defense in doing so. If memory serves, The Working Families Party, Progressive Democrats of America and Democratic Socialists of America have already done so.

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    2. On their FB page, The Hill calls DFA "a key ally in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination."

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    3. It’s about time!

      Yeeeaaaahhhhhh!!!

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    4. Yeah, that's what I thought. A bit late climbing on the bandwagon. Can't remember for sure, but I seem to remember filling out their poll in January. Could be wrong; it might have been the beginning of February. Still, they do seem late to the party.

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    5. It might be noted that the DFA endorsement process involved a vote by members.

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  6. Thirty-six minutes ago from The Hill's FB page:

    BREAKING: The Federal Emergency Management Agency is preparing for President Trump to potentially make an emergency declaration regarding the coronavirus outbreak, which would allow states and local governments to receive disaster relief funding and federal assistance to combat the virus.

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  7. From The Hill's FB page:

    Sen. Bernie Sanders is poised to win big among California Hispanics in the Democratic presidential primary, according to a new poll in which Sanders is the only candidate to break double-digit support from Hispanics ahead of the primary this week.

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  8. Replies
    1. BTW you'll be glad to know that Dear Leader has reassured us that it's "safe, very safe" for him to continue to hold rallies in the face of the Covid 19 threat. Oh, that makes me feel ever so much better. :P

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    2. It would be schaudenfreude indeed if Covid-19 were to be spread among attendees at his rallies in consequence of his claims that it is not a problem for them.

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    3. The exact words and, God help us, the video:

      Holding Rallies - Click

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  9. Replies
    1. So much for female solidarity...

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    2. Maybe she got an offer she couldn’t refuse. Heh.

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    3. Well, it wasn't unexpected, though I am mildly surprised she dropped out today.

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    4. And, by the way, that support amounts to all of seven delegates. Now, that would bring Biden up to sixty-three, all of three more than Bernie. Then again if (and it's a big 'if') Warren were to throw her eight to Bernie, he'd then have five more than Biden. No idear what Buttigieg might do with his twenty-six.

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    5. Buttigieg and Klobuchar BOTH went to Texas and endorsed Biden at his rally there this evening.

      Wil said he hopes it's such a landslide for Bernie tomorrow that the DNC are left sucking their thumbs. Ha! I love this man!!

      BTW! I just learned tonight that ALL voting members of my family here in Vermont are voting for Bernie tomorrow!! Plus, it looks like our 3 Vermont offspring will join us at Bernie's rally tomorrow evening!!

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  10. I just posted most of my Bernie buttons out front. Have a look!

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  11. Replies
    1. Ah, crap! That's exactly what I thought: Get Buttigieg and Klobuchar to drop out on the brink of Super Tuesday and throw their support behind Biden, thereby consolidating the anti Bernie vote. Sounds like all too sound a strategy. Of course, the former Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters may not break (Is hat the right spelling for the word I mean?) for Biden. There's still the Bloomberg factor; besides which, some may go for Bernie. But I have a bad feeling about this. The anti Bernie forces are very powerful and have very deep pockets. Then there's the whole voting machine angle...

      Basically hoping for the best but trying to prepare myself for the worst.

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  12. Buttigieg to Join Klobuchar at Biden Rally
    March 2, 2020 at 2:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 423 Comments

    Pete Buttigieg will be joining Amy Klobuchar to publicly endorse Joe Biden at a rally in Texas later tonight.

    Washington Post: “There’s a charter plane scheduled to go from South Bend to Dallas this evening, arriving not long after Biden’s rally begins.”

    “The Buttigieg team has been silent about this for hours but it’s possible Biden does what few have been able to: Bring Klobuchar and Buttigieg together.”

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    1. Heaven knows how transferrable Pete & Amy's support is.

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    2. Right. Some of their voters will go to Biden because their favorite candidate told them to and some because he is centrist. But some of Klobuchar's voters will go to Warren because she is a woman and some of Buttigieg's because she has clear, detailed plans. And some will go wherever their hart or latest impression takes them. No way to guess the relative proportions.

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    3. Estimates of the number of California voters who voted before today range up to 40%. Those who voted for candidates who have now given up wasted their votes.

      Our daughter voted today for the first time. No indications of votes different from her old man's. [Note: Thanksgiving at our home is not disagreeable.)

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    4. If they really want to change their vote, in most states they are allowed to show up at the polls, say they want their absentee ballot to not be counted, signing a form to that effect. Then they will be allowed to vote afresh. But that's a bit of work for people who chose to vote in advance. Hmmmm.

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  13. Replies
    1. Stacey Abrams has neither supported nor opposed M4A.

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    2. A Black woman of national stature who has openly supported M4A does not come to my mind. When Abrams was asked about it in connection with her run for Governor, she said that was something that had to be settled at the federal level, and in the meantime states would have to do their best with the tools at their disposal.

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    3. Told you Markey was one of the good guys. By contrast my congresscritter, Richie Neal, is a dud. I'm supporting his primary challenger, former Holyoke mayor Alex Norse.

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    4. A dud? Count your blessings. Our Congressional "Representative" is Devin Nunes.

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    5. Well, yes. There is that.

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  14. CDC abruptly postpones coronavirus press briefing; no explanation given. [Click] “The postponement comes after a number of states reported new cases over the weekend.” I think we can figure out the reason. Way to go, Trumpy; that’s sure going to calm everybody down.

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  15. Do any of you remember how the Hillbots savaged Bernie supporters in 2016? Well, the Biden supporters are just as bad in 2020. They are completely blind to his faults and his record. Their terror of trump has stripped them of all critical facilities. They resemble nothing more than a herd of sheep desperately running from a wolf. This is why the Democratic Establishment does this to us again and again. They use fear as a whip and herd us all into a kill box. If Biden is the nominee we are doomed.

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    1. I remain hopeful that the Democratic Party will not have to spend another four years in the wilderness, but I am not yet convinced.

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    2. I remember, Susan. I live with one, and she hasn't shut up about how evil Bernie is, and how evil his supporters are, and how it's his fault Clinton lost the election since November 9, 2016.

      At the moment she seems torn between Biden and Bloomberg, though I'm pretty sure she voted for Biden. She says she doesn't remember.

      My blankity blank sister voted for Biden. She had been hot for Buttigieg right up until the last minute. And she told me in chagrin after New Hampshire that she felt pretty foolish, having voted for Biden. If she had just gone with her first instinct and voted for Buttigieg, her vote would now be worthless. But, there's one more vote for bloody Biden!

      -- Alert! Violent speech follows --
      I could wring her neck! Not only for that, of course; she, er, shall we say, drives me up the wall!!!

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  16. Who gets 15% or more? [Click]

    MSNBC’s Chris Matthews quits [Click] I have never watched his show, but gather that it attracted a lot of interest over an extended run.

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    1. He's been hosting "Hard Ball" since 1999. You haven't missed anything, Alan. He's a loudmouth - and I mean LOUD! - bloviater. He's been having meltdowns and brainstorms over Bernie's success. A recent e-mail from PDA quoted him as calling Bernie supporters brownshirts. You mentioned recently that the Sanders team has a new media unit or words to that effect. It's hard for me to believe, but I wonder if they had anything to do with Matthews' quitting? The article Sis skimmed mentioned something about inappropriate comments to female colleagues. *shrug* I donno. But it's good riddance to bad rubbish as far as I'm concerned.

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    2. Ah, the things I miss by ignoring TV...

      NHK is pretty good, though; much like Auntie Beeb, or at least much as she used to be.

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  17. From the "Holy Shit!" file:

    Trump to Pharmaceutical Executive

    In the interests of full disclosure, I only read the tweet. Couldn't bring myself to actually watch the video.

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    1. Oops! Accidentally left off the "Click" after the title. But you worked that out.

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    2. If you couldn't bring yourself to watch the video, I assume that it would also distress me. Is it about the purported drug pricing executive order? If so, remember that Trump and his myrmidons have a demonstrated an inability to regularly write legally valid executive orders. And there is that little matter of the LAW that forbids Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

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    3. "...have a demonstrated an inability..." should read "...have a demonstrated inability..."

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    4. Presumably it's just the Cluck in Chief being his own inimitable self.

      It's safe to click through. The video does not start automatically. You can read the tweet, though you may want to avert your eyes from the displayed video still.

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    5. It didn't take me long to see enough. Continuing dementia.

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  18. Bernie in Mass. - Click

    These are my introductory remarks on FB. A trifle florid, perhaps. *shrug*

    Don't know about you, but I can't remember ever seeing a Democratic presidential candidate (apart from our own Sen. Warren in the early stages of her campaign) in Massachusetts, much less in Springfield. Frankly, if I were undecided, the mere fact that Sanders did not treat us as a sure thing, fly over state would cause me to give him a serious look.

    Bernie is an old fashioned, barnstorming, shoe leather burning campaigner. He has solid, sensible plans for how to make our country and the world as a whole a more livable place. He harkens back to FDR in his concern to raise up the working man, to empower the lower and middle classes and curb the abuses of the rich. At the same time, he modernizes and expands Martin Luther King's dream of a society where race, ethnicity, gender/orientation, ability or disability status and creed do not create barriers to divide us, but where we all work together for the common good as Americans. He wants to reduce the military and the military industrial complex to its appropriate size and function and end the forever war that serves only to make military contractors rich. He wants to make higher education free to all as high school is now free, and for much the same reason. Just as a high school diploma was once the key to a better life, so in our time a college degree is that key. He wants to make health care free, widely available and high quality. He wants to unite us, not divide us, and to bring America's great promise to fruition.

    Bernie Sanders​ is not the problem, he is the solution.

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    1. Dang, that Bernie guy sounds pretty good! Maybe I'll vote for him. [grin]

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  19. I am officially an old phart. My AARP member card arrived in today's mail.

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    1. Congratulations!! We haven't made the move yet. Wil turns 65 next month. I turn 64 1/2 next week. LOL.

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  20. It's been bugging me all day! Who is the person with Bernie in the photo at the top of the thread?

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