Monday, February 03, 2020

IOWA TODAY!


82 comments:

  1. 🌟 Bernie! Bernie!! Bernie!!! 🌟

    Bernie is FIRST!

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  2. And California voting starts today. The votes won't be counted for another month, though.

    Most recent California polls:

    Berkeley IGS (the most reliable) 1/15-1/21:
    Sanders 26%, Warren 20%, Biden 15%, Buttigieg 7%, Bloomberg 6%, Klobuchar 5%, Yang 4%

    KQED/NPR (a respected poll) 1/25-1/27:
    Sanders 30%, Warren 16%, Biden 15%, Buttigieg 8%, Bloomberg 4%, Yang 5% Klobuchar 3%

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    1. We keep seeing polls which show Bernie *way* out in front in the early states. So why do folks keep saying Biden is doing better nationally? Is it chiefly wishful rhetoric or is it based on something of actual substance?

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    2. The poll of likely primary voters nationwide that Alan just posted shows Biden with a small lead. That may change after early results. Bernie will do well in Iowa because it is a caucus state and in New Hampshire because it is next door to Vermont. I have seen no polls whatsoever from Nevada and what we hear from South Carolina is that Biden remains popular among black voters, who are the majority of the Democratic electorate there. The Biden campaign has always viewed South Carolina as the "firewall" that will keep his campaign viable after early losses.

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    3. Click here for polls, both national and early states. Of course there are variations in the qualities of polls, and the results in earlier states will influence later ones. Obama was not doing well in South Carolina in 2008 until he did well in Iowa and New Hampshire. And some states have hardly been polled so far.

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  3. 'You basically are nothing': the Americans shut out of the Iowa caucuses [Click] “Hundreds of thousands of Iowans are barred from the Iowa caucus because of physical and legal barriers.” Sounds like the Iowa Democratic Party doesn’t much care.

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    1. Permanent party operatives have the same interests as managers, consultants, pollsters, pundits and publicists—income. They also realize that, if the voters take over the process, they are rendered superfluous. Their common interest is to keep the process as muddled as it is. What basically happened in response to universal suffrage is that the established parties divided the electorate between them (labor vs. property owners) and catered, sort of, to their supposed interests (exclusion on the part of Republican royalists). While it looks like in the South that the divide is along racial lines, that is not quite accurate. People with property are snotty, even if the property is just a trailer for which they rent a space. The ability to shut other people out seems to be highly valued. Accounts for the popularity of the wall and gated communities.

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  4. Bloomberg is supposed to flit through Fresno today; sounds like he might have enough time to shake hands with the mayor and recite part of his stump speech. I think Buttigieg did that some time ago. To be fair, that's more than Obama did.

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    1. Obama spent much time in NH, beginning in 2006 when he came to congratulate us on electing Carol Shea-Porter to Congress after telling Pelosi to butt out of our primary. I supported Chris Dodd whom I think we should thank for crafting the ACA and its companion, Dodd/Franks.

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  5. Why sushi could be the solution to a sea urchin invasion [Click] “The ravenous creatures are destroying vast swaths of kelp forests [all over the world], which are crucial for carbon storage. Is the answer staring us in the plate?”

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    1. I once tried to order sea urchin in a Chinese restaurant. My request was refused because, "Americans don't like sea urchin.:"

      I felt like I was being told I was inferior.

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  6. The first of a continuous eight-day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic voters finds Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 29% support, followed by Joe Biden at 14%, Pete Buttigieg at 13%, and Elizabeth Warren with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits.

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  7. The Stakes for Biden In Iowa Are Enormous [Click]

    Playbook: “If Bernie Sanders wins convincingly tonight and is pulling in huge money online, and Joe Biden does worse than expected, establishment Dems are going to freak out.”

    The extremely small number of votes it takes to win the Iowa caucuses, explained
    [Click] And why it’s so hard to get them.

    Climate Models are Running Red Hot [Click] No one knows why.

    Politico: Iowa might have just witnessed the start of a Democratic Party takeover [Click] “If you were an alien visiting Iowa this weekend…”

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  8. Today, Ken Starr invoked the prayers of the Senate Chaplain, the words and deeds of Martin Luther King, Jr, and the image of the Lincoln Memorial to support the making of a monarchy, and called it moral. This is utter Travesty.

    Isn’t true that even as Republicans complain that the vote was partisan, they are just as guilty of making it partisan? More, perhaps, given that there are some Independents in the Senate as well. And doesn’t this underscore the need in our nation for more than two or three parties?

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    1. Takes a lot of grunt work to run a party. Just now, both parties are limping along because of lack of grunts. Indies don't seem to care for gruntwork, so they can't make even a limpalong party.

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    2. Well, I'm an Indie and I sure have been a grunt along the way! Bernie is an Indie and he's sure no slouch. I think it's just that those who could create a viable Independent (or Progressive or Green or whathaveyou) party have long been told "it won't work" and the Dem machine does everything it can to keep it from becoming possible. Repubs too. It's greed.

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  9. One of the news items I expected to see in today's Tribune was who won the Super Bowl. Not a word about it. But there was an article about the best and worst ads. Is today's Super Bowl more about ads than the game?

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    1. I saw that Trump congratulated the State of Kansas on account of the Kansas City (Missouri) team winning...

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    2. Yes, I saw that too. Smooth, Donald, real smooth. :P

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  10. From the Here It Comes files:

    A new Morning Consult national poll finds Joe Biden’s support falling to 28% among Democratic primary voters nationwide — the lowest share measured since in early 2019. He’s trailed by Bernie Sanders at 24%. Also interesting: Michael Bloomberg has pulled even with Elizabeth Warren in third place at 14% each.

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    1. Headline: Biden Allies Play Down Iowa Expectations

      President of White Star Line: "The Titanic was designed as a high speed passenger liner, not an ice breaker."

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  11. Technology Problems Could Delay Iowa Vote [Click] Caucus chairs can’t figure out how to use the new phone app for reporting. Didn’t they have the same problem four years ago? There is talk about Sanders workers at the caucuses being prepared to send in the first round results right away using their own system. If they can do that, they can send in the final results right away as well.

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    1. "Some" caucus chairs, that is.

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    2. Cool! Lots of Bernie people are tech savvy.

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  12. Replies
    1. Yep.

      Years ago, when I was a chaplain intern at the medical center here, an older man I was chaplain for was dying of lung cancer. It is no good way to die...gasping for breath. His ex came in to sign papers, and he signed his estate over to her. I witnessed. He said to me, "I'm signing my life away." Incredibly sad.

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    2. It strikes me that gasping for breath is the ideal way for Rush Limbaugh to die. Poetic justice.

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    3. I sadly admit that that thought has also crossed my mind.

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  13. Rep. Jason Crow's pithy, worthy opening remarks from today and Rep. Adam Schiff's brilliant, passionate closing remarks at the end of the day's session, are especially worthwhile to listen to!

    Rep. Jason Crow (who is age 40!) spoke first of the day. His remarks begin at 11:08am. Adam Schiff spoke last. His remarks begin at 2:34pm.

    https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1OyJAYPWyneJb

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    1. Hey, if you're sitting there waiting for results from Iowa, watching the above clips would really make your night. Excellent oratory for our times!!

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  14. link corrected:

    Majority [two thirds!] of Iowa Democrats Seek Fundamental Change [rather than a return to the pre-Trump status] [Click]

    Manchin Calls for Censuring Trump [Click]

    From politicalwire.com: The Iowa caucuses begin at 8 p.m. ET at most locations and the first results are expected within the hour.

    The Des Moines Register [Click] is tracking results as they come in.

    And if you can take the stress, the New York Times has live dials. [Click]

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    1. Check out the rest of the survey at the start of this group of links [Dems favor fundamental change]. Large majorities favor Medicate For All and a carbon emission tax on fossil fuels.

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    2. Hmmm...."Medicate For All?" A typographical error or a Freudian slip? Before this is over, I might require some eighty-six proof medication...

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    3. Medication required or not, Fundamental political change, Medicare for All, and Carbon tax sounds to me more like Bernie than any of the other candidates.

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    4. Yes, it sounds like Bernie to me as well. We can but hope.

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  15. From a live blog:
    It is 7pm CT, so the Iowa caucuses are officially under way, kicking off the Democratic presidential primary. Because of the streamlined rules this year, officials hope the caucuses can wrap up within an hour. But one of the largest caucus sites in Des Moines is already seeing long lines of voters looking to change their party affiliation or register in order to caucus tonight.

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    1. It's 8:45pm and still not done.

      They are largely done, but doing "quality control."

      Should have results beginning to come in about 15 minutes. Stay tuned!

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    2. 9:28 CT and still nothing reported.

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    3. Well now, here we are awaiting results from Iowa, and there is a big delay. CNN says the Dems are doing some "quality control." (Ha! I can't wait to see what SNL does with that!)
      It's very unexpected and really seems strange.

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    4. Quality control, eh? You mean, like, throwing out all the votes for Sanders? Because, after all, he can't beat Trump and he isn't a real democrat anyway. So, he can't be allowed to win. :P

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    5. I admit that had crossed my mind.

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    6. Ohhhh myyyyy! CNN got through to the Precinct Secretary who had been on hold with the Dem Party for an hour, so he could report his precinct's results. As he was talking with Wolf Blitzer, the Dems came on the line with the Precinct Secretary. In the midst of the guy explaining to Blitzer that he had to go, asking if CNN could listen in, the Dems hung up on the guy!

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    7. So here's the scoop...

      The top campaign aids of all the candidates have been called to an emergency meeting with the Dems in Iowa. They have had a MAJOR glitch in the new system. They had an app that Precinct Secretaries were supposed to be able to use to report results and it would all be super fast. Instead, the app has not functioned and they've had to have everyone call in their results. Folks, there are nearly 17,000 precincts!! 😲

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    8. They found inconsistencies in the reporting of results. So they are having to validate everything via paper trail.

      They have 3 sets of results:

      Popular vote, first round
      Popular vote, second round
      Winner(s)

      So, the app didn't work, then they had trouble calling in the results (which was the backup plan).

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    9. "The toughest job with the new Caucus Rules will be that of Secretary."

      Understatement of the year, Phil!

      No results yet as of midnight. The app they were to use didn’t work. Their back up plan was to have precinct secretaries phone in their results, but there were long holdups on the phones. A mess. They did say there are no hacking issues. It’s just going to take time to do it all by hand via paper trail. After all, there are nearly 17,000 precincts!

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  16. Bill, thanks for the explanation of the year on the last thread. Also, I see that I made some sort of HTML error, that effectively erased the title of my second book. That should be: This week I'm reading Mission: Jimmy Stewart and the Fight for Europe and Quo Vadis.

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    1. Alan, please don't remind me of The Mouse That Roared. I really don't have room on my exceedingly long list for another reread, and such a tempting one. Guess I read it at around age thirteen, and remember going into helpless gales of laughter over it.

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    2. The movie of The Mouse That Roared had a number of significant differences, but both the book and the movie are excellent! Oops....

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  17. 15m ago 22:38

    Here’s the latest on the delayed results: after earlier reports of issues with the app designed to communicate precinct-level results, some officials are saying they have been unable to get through on the hotline that was supposed to be the backup for app malfunctions.

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  18. 3m ago 22:54

    Here’s the full statement from the Iowa Democratic Party on the delayed reporting of tonight’s results:

    The integrity of the results is paramount. We have experienced a delay in the results due to quality checks and the fact that the IDP is reporting out three data sets for the first time. What we know right now is that around 25% of precincts have reported, and early data indicates turnout is on pace for 2016.

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    1. The turnout in 2016 was roughly two-thirds of what it was in 2008, when Barack Obama was able to land a surprise victory.

      If more moderate candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden are able to run up their numbers in the more moderate counties, it could help them surpass Sanders in the all-important state delegate equivalent tally, which is used to determine the winner of the Iowa caucuses.

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    2. None of that sounds good. :(

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    3. True. But with three different numbers being reported, they say it is possible that three different candidates could claim a win of one sort or another.

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  19. I googled something today (can't even remember what!) and up popped a post I made here in August of 2011. The funny part is that it was just after youngest's wedding and I thanked Renee for a comment Alan had made, so puddle asked me if I'd gotten any sleep. 😂 I also managed to miss a question Alan asked, so I thought I'd answer it now, after all these years:

    Yes, Alan, as you suspected, Son was headed to Vancouver BC, not Washington. 😆

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    1. Ah yes, I remember it clearly! And I also have a great deal on a toll bridge for you, tonight only!

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  20. The more I read about the Iowa caucuses, the more undemocratic they seem. They could have a primary election with ranked choice voting--it's roughly the same idea as their caucuses, and would enable more people to vote.

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    1. Sounds good to me. I sure wish we could get rank choice voting instituted nationwide. Seems to me it might draw in more potential voters. I remember Sis telling me that in the last presidential election, one of her friends said she didn't want Trump to win, but she wasn't going to vote because her vote didn't count. I just found that kind of discouragement terribly sad. Perhaps if voters could list up to three choices and understand that the candidate with the most votes overall would win, it might seem to more people that their vote would indeed count.

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    2. Funny you mention it.
      There has been discussion about whether Iowa should continue the caucuses or move to primaries.
      Tonight's Yuge app crew up is going to tip the scales toward primaries in a big way.

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    3. The problem with Iowa switching to a primary, of course, is that New Hampshire has the traditional right to hold the nation's first primary. If Iowa switches to a primary either it has to move after New Hampshire or New Hampshire is going to be very, very, very upset.

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  21. So yet again the reporting of the Iowa caucus results is a mess. It's as if they didn't run any drills, even after the mess four years ago.

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  22. From early this morning: The Iowa Caucus Could Go Very Wrong [Click] “Caucus chairs are more concerned this cycle than I’ve ever seen them,” one precinct leader said. “They’re very nervous.”

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  23. NEW @iowademocrats stmt: “We found inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results. In addition to the tech systems being used to tabulate results, we are also using photos of results and a paper trail to validate that all results...

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  24. The Iowa Democratic Party is saying the problem is inconsistent results. They seem to be saying the app is working and are also saying it's not a hack. But no hint of how long it will take them to straighten it out.

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    1. Inconsistent results would account for what they were saying about quality checks.

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  25. 1m ago 04:43Joe Biden’s campaign has sent a fiery letter to the Iowa Democratic Party, saying the app and the back-up phone system meant to convey results have “failed.” The candidate’s general counsel said the campaign looked forward to hearing “full explanations” on how the reporting got derailed.“In the meantime,” the letter concludes, “we are on to New Hampshire, on the road to most important election of our lifetimes.”


    NEW: Biden camp NOT happy about Iowa reporting problems. Just issued this letter. pic.twitter.com/4UasHXMCGp [I *think* this like is properly formatted]

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  26. I like the story about the caucus where there were more than 15% undecided, who would have been stuck with that (new rule this year) but changed themselves into a group supporting Cory Booker.

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    1. They had all originally supported various non-viable candidates. The usual procedure for those who didn't want to move to a viable candidate would have been to support "uncommitted" (sending uncommitted delegates to the convention), but they chose the organize for Booker instead. Which has the same practical effect.

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  27. 22m ago 00:14
    Results delay resurrects the question: should Iowa go first?

    Even more so than past caucuses, Iowa has received a lot of scrutiny this election cycle over whether it should continue to vote first, considering the Democratic Party is increasingly diverse and 90% of the state’s residents are white.

    But tonight’s issues with reporting the results of the caucuses have intensified concerns about Iowa playing such an important role in the party’s nominating contest.

    David Plouffe, the campaign manager for Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, predicted this may be “the last Iowa caucus.”

    Hear, hear! It's as if they hadn't held any drills--which would would be incredibly lunkheaded given the problems they had four years ago plus the intervening rules changes, reporting changes, and the far greater number of candidates.

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  28. The Des Moines County results won't be reported until mid-morning tomorrow. Everybody might as well go go bed.

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  29. Krugman: How Zombies Ate the G.O.P.’s Soul [Click] “Everyone with principles has left the party.”

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  30. 80 comments in this thread so far; pretty good. As memory serves me, at its peak the Dean For America blog had threads of around 700 comments.

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