A new Morning Consult survey of Democratic primary voters finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 29%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 27%, Kamala Harris at 10%, Beto O’Rourke at 7% and Elizabeth Warren at 7%.
More interesting is a follow-up about who Democrats would choose as a second option:
Biden voters: 28% would go to Sanders, 12% to Harris and 8% to Warren. Sanders voters: 26% would go to Biden, 16% to Warren and 7% to Harris. Harris voters: 19% would go to Biden, 15% to Sanders, 14% to Warren. Warren voters: 26% would go to Sanders, 17% to Biden, 13% to Harris. O’Rourke voters: 22% would go to Sanders, 20% to Biden, 12% to Harris.
My take: It's very early days indeed, but horse race reporting is inherently interesting; in the comments someone pointed out that surveys at this time in 1991 had Bill Clinton at 2%. In this survey 20% of the people surveyed did not support any of the "Big 5" candidates, for whatever reason. Biden and Sanders are tied at 38% of first plus second choices; Harris, Beto and Warren are nobody's second choice, so at 10%, 7% and 7%. Biden has demonstrated neither fundraising ability nor campaigning ability so far, and continues his Hamlet on the Potomac act. The way I see it, that puts Sanders clearly in the lead for now, with Biden a speculative runner-up. The run-up to the early primaries will test the candidates’ campaigning and fundraising abilities, which will also be tested by said early primaries, and there should be a clear front runner by the middle or end of March next year. But as we had to memorize for the SAT test, “The best laid plans of mice and men gang aft aglay.” I am disappointed that Warren isn’t doing better at this point, and very surprised that Bernie doesn’t have anything resembling a conventional web site yet—just a splash page with a signup link.
Hamlet on the Potomac. Very apt. Seems to me, Biden has missed his cue. Everyone who wants to play is already in the game. Sweeping in late isn't going to endear him to anyone.
I'm not saying much about other candidates in public forums, but I *really* hope neither Kamala Harris nor Cory Booker get the nomination. Those are the two the DNC has seemed to be pushing for the last several months.
But, as my youngest son has said repeatedly, when it comes down to the real election if the Dems run three stacked lizards in a raincoat I must vote for them.
On the other hand, Susan, that's just the sort of thinking that landed us in this mess to begin with. We *don't* have to accept whomever the DNC decides to run, and we don't do ourselves or the country any favors by doing so. If you have the luxury of writing in your actual choice, then do so. If not, find the nearest candidate to what you want, as for instance the Green candidate in '16, and give that candidate your vote. We're not slaves of the DNC! The sooner they learn as much, and that the voters aren't going to stand for their New Democrat, Republican Lite, Clintonista bullshit, the better off we'll all be. Party unity is all well and good, but when the electorate is forced to vote for an abysmal candidate because he or she is what the party has decreed is the choice over the demonstrated will of the voters, it's time for the voters to take matters into their own hands.
It's hard, and probably unwise, to draw conclusions from one article. That being said, I myself would prefer a policy that encouraged one parent to stay home with children rather than the opposite. A living minimum wage and the ability of homemakers to earn Social Security points would be a start.
Absent a web site, how would I convey these idears to Bernie or, for that matter, check whether he has incorporated them into his platform?
Yes, I see the same problems with the absence of a web site. Maybe if one uses the signup form, one gets access to the web site--but I have not tested it. I am already getting a lot of e-mails allegedly from Bernie, asking for more money.
I don't think Biden will mess it up for Bernie; they are too different. Biden's effective slogan will be about the same as HRC's: MORE OF THE SAME! Which is not attuned to the zeitgeist. Biden would be an obvious anachronism. On top of that, he has been too long in the public eye, and has some significant baggage. Bernie is still relatively new to people at large because his career has mostly been in Vermont.
Conservative writer cautions GOP: Just because Democrats are moving left doesn’t mean they’ll lose in 2020 - Click The last paragraph sounds to me as though Mr. Merry wants Bernie to win the presidency in 2020 so he can destroy the country and leave it ready for the Republicans to ride to the rescue. Setting Bernie up much as Fox News et all set Clinton up in '16? It troubles me that Alternet offers no commentary, no caution, but presents Merry's statements gleefully. This strikes me as very foolish. Still, the statements are there, for what they're worth.
The text of Gaetz's tweet: "Hey @MichaelCohen212 - Do your wife & father-in-law know about your girlfriends? Maybe tonight would be a good time for that chat. I wonder if she’ll remain faithful when you’re in prison. She’s about to learn a lot..."
Via politicalwire.com:
ReplyDeleteA new Morning Consult survey of Democratic primary voters finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field with 29%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 27%, Kamala Harris at 10%, Beto O’Rourke at 7% and Elizabeth Warren at 7%.
More interesting is a follow-up about who Democrats would choose as a second option:
Biden voters: 28% would go to Sanders, 12% to Harris and 8% to Warren.
Sanders voters: 26% would go to Biden, 16% to Warren and 7% to Harris.
Harris voters: 19% would go to Biden, 15% to Sanders, 14% to Warren.
Warren voters: 26% would go to Sanders, 17% to Biden, 13% to Harris.
O’Rourke voters: 22% would go to Sanders, 20% to Biden, 12% to Harris.
My take: It's very early days indeed, but horse race reporting is inherently interesting; in the comments someone pointed out that surveys at this time in 1991 had Bill Clinton at 2%. In this survey 20% of the people surveyed did not support any of the "Big 5" candidates, for whatever reason. Biden and Sanders are tied at 38% of first plus second choices; Harris, Beto and Warren are nobody's second choice, so at 10%, 7% and 7%. Biden has demonstrated neither fundraising ability nor campaigning ability so far, and continues his Hamlet on the Potomac act. The way I see it, that puts Sanders clearly in the lead for now, with Biden a speculative runner-up. The run-up to the early primaries will test the candidates’ campaigning and fundraising abilities, which will also be tested by said early primaries, and there should be a clear front runner by the middle or end of March next year. But as we had to memorize for the SAT test, “The best laid plans of mice and men gang aft aglay.” I am disappointed that Warren isn’t doing better at this point, and very surprised that Bernie doesn’t have anything resembling a conventional web site yet—just a splash page with a signup link.
But Joe Biden hasn't even entered the race yet, has he?
DeletePrecisely. And I do not think this is the time for Fortune to favor the indecisive.
DeleteIt's very early days indeed. Two of this poll's "Big Five" aren't even in the race.
DeleteHamlet on the Potomac. Very apt. Seems to me, Biden has missed his cue. Everyone who wants to play is already in the game. Sweeping in late isn't going to endear him to anyone.
DeleteI'm not saying much about other candidates in public forums, but I *really* hope neither Kamala Harris nor Cory Booker get the nomination. Those are the two the DNC has seemed to be pushing for the last several months.
ReplyDeleteBut, as my youngest son has said repeatedly, when it comes down to the real election if the Dems run three stacked lizards in a raincoat I must vote for them.
I come in peace. Take me to your lizard.” [Click]
DeleteFunny fella. :)
DeleteOn the other hand, Susan, that's just the sort of thinking that landed us in this mess to begin with. We *don't* have to accept whomever the DNC decides to run, and we don't do ourselves or the country any favors by doing so. If you have the luxury of writing in your actual choice, then do so. If not, find the nearest candidate to what you want, as for instance the Green candidate in '16, and give that candidate your vote. We're not slaves of the DNC! The sooner they learn as much, and that the voters aren't going to stand for their New Democrat, Republican Lite, Clintonista bullshit, the better off we'll all be. Party unity is all well and good, but when the electorate is forced to vote for an abysmal candidate because he or she is what the party has decreed is the choice over the demonstrated will of the voters, it's time for the voters to take matters into their own hands.
Yes, but when it comes down to the wire I don't consider it as voting *for* the Democrat, but *against* the Republican.
DeleteTo win we need someone to vote for as much as someone to vote against.
DeleteThe Trouble With Elizabeth Warren’s Child-Care Plan [Click] Can’t say as I cotton to this analysis in its entirety, but it is in the end a considered discussion.
ReplyDeleteThe Mystery of Antarctica’s Missing Iron Meteorites [Click]
It's hard, and probably unwise, to draw conclusions from one article. That being said, I myself would prefer a policy that encouraged one parent to stay home with children rather than the opposite. A living minimum wage and the ability of homemakers to earn Social Security points would be a start.
DeleteAbsent a web site, how would I convey these idears to Bernie or, for that matter, check whether he has incorporated them into his platform?
Yes, I see the same problems with the absence of a web site. Maybe if one uses the signup form, one gets access to the web site--but I have not tested it. I am already getting a lot of e-mails allegedly from Bernie, asking for more money.
DeleteInside the Pell trial: we sat in court for months, forbidden from reporting a word [Click] I thought the coverage would be more considered today, and it is. Links to yesterday’s coverage. Along similar lines:
ReplyDeleteThousands of migrant children report they were sexually abused in US custody [Click]
Top Strategists Quit on Bernie Sanders [Click] Over “creative differences?” Gimmie a break; they’re not making a movie or curating an art exhibit.
Biden Is Hiring Staffers In Early States [Click]
Re Bernie strategists: click through to the NBC News article.
DeleteBloody hell! Biden will louse it up for Bernie, especially if Bernie is already facing desertions.
DeleteSo you don't consider ads creative? People in the advertising industry would disagree.
DeleteI don't think Biden will mess it up for Bernie; they are too different. Biden's effective slogan will be about the same as HRC's: MORE OF THE SAME! Which is not attuned to the zeitgeist. Biden would be an obvious anachronism. On top of that, he has been too long in the public eye, and has some significant baggage. Bernie is still relatively new to people at large because his career has mostly been in Vermont.
DeleteConservative writer cautions GOP: Just because Democrats are moving left doesn’t mean they’ll lose in 2020 - Click The last paragraph sounds to me as though Mr. Merry wants Bernie to win the presidency in 2020 so he can destroy the country and leave it ready for the Republicans to ride to the rescue. Setting Bernie up much as Fox News et all set Clinton up in '16? It troubles me that Alternet offers no commentary, no caution, but presents Merry's statements gleefully. This strikes me as very foolish. Still, the statements are there, for what they're worth.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/republican-scorsese-character-matt-gaetz-slammed-mobster-trying-blackmail-witness-cohen-tweet/
ReplyDeleteThe text of Gaetz's tweet: "Hey @MichaelCohen212 - Do your wife & father-in-law know about your girlfriends? Maybe tonight would be a good time for that chat. I wonder if she’ll remain faithful when you’re in prison. She’s about to learn a lot..."
Whom else among us will be watching Cohen's testimony tomorrow? CNN is covering it (10 or 11 am to 4pm). Anyone else covering it?
ReplyDeleteNot me. I will be gettin' schooled in drawing; starting with Conte crayons, maybe about two weeks before the rest of the class.
Delete