Thinking about that essay on postcapitalism that I referenced the other day, it appeals to me not because of any exact agreement with the writer’s point of view, but because it interacts with my impression that we are, somehow, at the cusp of great change in society—although we can’t be at all sure just what the change will be. The old ways are dying, and it is not at all clear whether the new ways have yet been born. Often it happens that way; the invention of movable type and wood pulp paper presaged great things; so did the steam engine. Ditto with feudalism (both its birth and its death) and now with newspapers. On the verge of great change, and even when it is happening or has happened, people’s understanding or consciousness of it is likely to be extremely limited. I vaguely recall a book set in Italy just before the outbreak of WWII; the beginning of the book was on the very day before, and the author was at great pains to portray just how ordinary everything seemed. Dogs were doggy, vacationers vacationed, mail was delivered, trash was picked up, on and on…for people at large it was a supremely ordinary day. Sometimes the event that makes the change evident to everyone happens suddenly and is a great shock; at other times there is no one great, striking event—the thing has happened, but it sneaks up on people and very slowly worms its way into their consciousness. This moment seems pregnant with promise—let us hope that the outcome will be more good than bad. In the words of the song, “The banner bright, the symbol plain; Of human right and human gain.” Fingers crossed.
I have seen many changes over my 78 years, and there can be no doubt that change is continuing. Whether the changes to come are more fundamental than those I've already seen is unclear. But the ones I've seen are themselves retty profound, make no mistake about that. (And then I think about the changes in my grandmother's lifetime. She was born during the Civil War.)
I'm not sure how this relates to what Alan is talking about, but I see a clear Kondratieff cycle. Kondratieff expressed this in economic terms: 10 years of boom followed by 30 years of relative stagnation. He tied this to changes in business organization, I look to the maturation of specific technologies (computers and communications in the 1990s, Interstate highways and commercial aviation in the 1960s, mass production in the 1920s,and so on back). This means we should see another boom in the 2030s, or maybe the late 2020s since the cycles seem to be getting shorter.
But the point is that each of these technologies has had a profound influence not just of business organization but on society generally. And I think the same will be true for the one now inching its way toward maturity -- I'm guessing materials, including biomaterials.
Bill--I agree with you that progress in materials science is both having and going to have a considerable effect on industry and society. But that seems to be part of a very long (albeit accelerating) trend. I feel (and use the word "feel" advisedly) that we may be nearing an "enough is enough" point in society--an inflection point, if you will. In the words of Sister Rosetta Parks' song, "Strange things are happening every day."
What I see people -- including Bernie -- talking about is essentially a reversal of the changes that occurred under Reagan. Although it won't be simply a return to JFK/LBJ. Things change. But full-fledged anarcho-syndicalism? T'would be nice, but I'm not seeing that.
Howard's first this hot and heated day!
ReplyDeleteLovely flowers!!
Thinking about that essay on postcapitalism that I referenced the other day, it appeals to me not because of any exact agreement with the writer’s point of view, but because it interacts with my impression that we are, somehow, at the cusp of great change in society—although we can’t be at all sure just what the change will be. The old ways are dying, and it is not at all clear whether the new ways have yet been born. Often it happens that way; the invention of movable type and wood pulp paper presaged great things; so did the steam engine. Ditto with feudalism (both its birth and its death) and now with newspapers. On the verge of great change, and even when it is happening or has happened, people’s understanding or consciousness of it is likely to be extremely limited. I vaguely recall a book set in Italy just before the outbreak of WWII; the beginning of the book was on the very day before, and the author was at great pains to portray just how ordinary everything seemed. Dogs were doggy, vacationers vacationed, mail was delivered, trash was picked up, on and on…for people at large it was a supremely ordinary day. Sometimes the event that makes the change evident to everyone happens suddenly and is a great shock; at other times there is no one great, striking event—the thing has happened, but it sneaks up on people and very slowly worms its way into their consciousness. This moment seems pregnant with promise—let us hope that the outcome will be more good than bad. In the words of the song, “The banner bright, the symbol plain; Of human right and human gain.” Fingers crossed.
ReplyDelete—Alan
I have seen many changes over my 78 years, and there can be no doubt that change is continuing. Whether the changes to come are more fundamental than those I've already seen is unclear. But the ones I've seen are themselves retty profound, make no mistake about that. (And then I think about the changes in my grandmother's lifetime. She was born during the Civil War.)
DeleteI'm not sure how this relates to what Alan is talking about, but I see a clear Kondratieff cycle. Kondratieff expressed this in economic terms: 10 years of boom followed by 30 years of relative stagnation. He tied this to changes in business organization, I look to the maturation of specific technologies (computers and communications in the 1990s, Interstate highways and commercial aviation in the 1960s, mass production in the 1920s,and so on back). This means we should see another boom in the 2030s, or maybe the late 2020s since the cycles seem to be getting shorter.
But the point is that each of these technologies has had a profound influence not just of business organization but on society generally. And I think the same will be true for the one now inching its way toward maturity -- I'm guessing materials, including biomaterials.
Its out there. . . .
Deletehttp://www.mahablog.com/2015/07/18/the-growing-anti-capitalist-movement/
Bill--I agree with you that progress in materials science is both having and going to have a considerable effect on industry and society. But that seems to be part of a very long (albeit accelerating) trend. I feel (and use the word "feel" advisedly) that we may be nearing an "enough is enough" point in society--an inflection point, if you will. In the words of Sister Rosetta Parks' song, "Strange things are happening every day."
Delete--Alan
What I see people -- including Bernie -- talking about is essentially a reversal of the changes that occurred under Reagan. Although it won't be simply a return to JFK/LBJ. Things change. But full-fledged anarcho-syndicalism? T'would be nice, but I'm not seeing that.
DeleteBernie-mania spreads to Texas as Sanders' speech draws crowd of 5,000 [Click]
ReplyDelete--Alan
More power to him!
Delete