Tuesday, February 09, 2016

BLUEberry Pancakes for NH Primary on Shrove Tuesday!


18 comments:

  1. We have the power! As well as the blueberries...

    It occurs to me to wonder (you know I have a bizarre sense of humor) whether the voters will be shriven before voting or after...

    --Alan

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  2. Results are in! [Click] MANCHESTER, N.H. — Ohio Gov. John Kasich won the most Republican votes in Dixville Notch early Tuesday morning, while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders won all the Democratic votes.

    --Alan

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  3. puddle—
    here [Click] is a current story giving a little information about Bernie’s ground game in states to come. In recent days he was spending three times as much on TV ads in NH as was HRC, and a while back there was a story that he was doing the same in Nevada.

    —Alan

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  4. "Ground game?" That's all about TV buys. The media find it hard to deal with people out knocking on doors, as we did for Dean. But which I mean they find it hard to quantify.

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  5. With 13% of precincts reporting, HuffPost is calling New Hampshire for Bernie. I guess the only question is now big the margin will be.

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    1. With 40% of precincts reporting, Bernie's margin is roughly 3:2.

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    2. 71% of precincts reporting, and as far as I can tell Bernie has carried every one of them throughout the state.

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  6. Free Spirit and I spent a lot of hours talking about how Howard wasted/never understood what he had in the blog. Nor did anyone at HQ.

    She later worked with the black vote in NC, and was astonished at the targeting, precision, assistance, tabs keeping done. And evidently has always been done in black communities. Obama took that idea and moved it into the electronic age, and moved. . . .

    Ad buys sort of goes with Potemkin Village--historicity, lol!

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  7. With 55% of precincts reporting, it continues to hold steady at about 60:40 for Bernie, just as at 1 reporting%; not bad. On the GOP side Rubio is barely hanging in above 10%, the threshold to win a delegate.

    Re historicity of TV ad buys--I suppose that is a way to influence folks who aren't with the Internet Age. Leave no stone unturned and all that. But modern means of communication have come into their own.

    Well, time to head for the barn.

    --Alan

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  8. One more note--I looked at the NH 2008 primary data, and HRC's percentage of the vote was just about what it is this time.

    --Alan

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  9. Blueberries are good!

    I wonder how many states HRC will have to lose or even win by a couple of tenths of a percent before she withdraws with grace and dignity. Oh, wait. We are talking about HRC. She is the inevitable nominee, entitled and anointed. It doesn't matter how many states she loses or just squeaks through by a whisker. She is HRC and it is *her* time.

    Sorry for the cattiness. She has that effect on me.

    Don't think I told you guys what Dad said last night. Now, mind you, I surmise this is the current fantasy a la Faux News because they are desperate for a Democratic nominee weaker than Bernie. But, in any case:

    Dad thinks that if, for whatever reason, Hillary is not a viable candidate the powers that be, rather than letting Bernie be nominated, they will draft Biden. When I mentioned this to sis this evening she said she'd seen something of the sort though not what the original source was.

    My personal view is that they think Biden is vulnerable,being that he is much more an old fashioned bleeding heart Liberal than the Clintons, and he's Catholic, so the radical fringe that seems to be in control of the Republican Party at the moment would be able to tear him to shreds. Also, he is not organized so, I surmise, they think he would not be able to mount an effective campaign in the general. Like I say, it sounds to me like a Faux News wet dream. They're scared to death of Bernie.

    Every time I walk past Dad's TV, which is always tuned to Faux News when not to a Country Music channel (which seems to me very much like a radio station), they're discussing Bernie and how, though he has tremendous appeal, he is not a serious candidate. Seems to me they give him a whole lot of free publicity, airing snippets from his speeches and such. And I can't help but think they harp so much on his unelectability (Is that a word?) because they know none of the likely Republican nominees have a chance against him. Much the same reason as why the Clinton campaign spreads the same bologna, come to think of it. If everybody keeps saying Bernie is no threat, that he cannot possibly be nominated or elected, maybe the saying of it will make it true.

    I'm reminded of the Ravenous Bug Bladder Beast of Thrall, a mind-bogglingly stupid animal. It assumes that if you can't see it, it can't see you. Daft as a brush but very, very ravenous. Ahem. Not an exact analogy, but the mindset is similar.

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  10. Interesting analogy, Cat; it will bear contemplation.

    I went back and checked HRC's percentage of the New Hampshire primary vote in 2008; 39%. And this year it looks to be....39%. One of course wonders if it was the same people voting for her each time--or more likely, the same demographic groups. Probably just a coincidence.

    I suspect that Bernie might well attract some putative Republican voters from the rebellious masses. Well, we will see what happens. The day may yet come that the Democratic establishment must take the bull by the tail and look it straight in the eye. (Tip o' the hat to W.C. Fields.) Jesse Jackson got about 30% of the delegates; that wasn't enough. What if Bernie gets around 50% not including superdelegates? Would they be foolish enough to push through someone else, ignoring the tide of history? To do so would cause incalculable damage to the party, because the young are the ones who will control the electoral processes very soon.

    BTW, while looking for a recording of "Joe Hill" last night, I came across "Rebel Girl." The original lyrics are dated (after only a hundred-odd years), but it's still a dandy song.

    --Alan

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    1. This time, as in 2008, we're only looking at two candidates. And 2008 tells us that, no matter what they have said earlier, the superdelegates are going to go along with the candidate who gets the majority of the elected delegates. I suppose that might not be true if the elected delegate count is very, very close, but it seems improbable that the whole country will resemble Iowa.

      And I don't see how the nominee could be Biden. Even given an essentially even split of the elected delegates, that would require most of the superdelegates to vote for Biden on the first ballot, forcing a second ballot where Clinton's delegates could abandon her for Biden. Pretty far-fetched, IMHO.

      Something more like that is more plausible on the Republican side, where the elected delegates are likely to be so split that no candidate has close to a majority.

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  11. "Ohio Governor John Kasich came second in the Republican vote, with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Marco Rubio all vying for third place. "

    US election 2016: Trump and Sanders win New Hampshire - Click

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    1. "With more than 80% of the votes counted, Senator Sanders has a lead of more than 20 percentage points over Mrs Clinton in the two-horse race for the Democratic nomination. He had topped polls in New Hampshire in recent months, but it is still a significant victory for the self-described Democratic socialist candidate. "

      20%! Ha! Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Miss Inevitable!

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    2. "Mrs Clinton's campaign manager, Robby Mook, said in a memo that they expected the race for the Democratic nomination "very likely" to be decided in March."

      I was just saying to Sis tonight that the way all the states crowd to the front nowadays jockeying for position and power, by the time we get to the late primaries like California, it's all over bar the shouting.
      but I wonder if it really will be that way this year. The BBC is holding to the script that HrC remains the frontrunner. How long, I wonder, will the media be able to cling to that fiction, or fantasy?

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