Omits the story that the naked, muddy Welsh archers ran out and placed sharpened, muddy, and nearly invisible sticks in front to impede the horses of the French heavy cavalry, then temporarily withdrew. Does include research on the special properties of the local mud and the probable quality of the French men at arms' armor. -----Alan
Keep Kamala and Carry On [Click] “as we sit here today trying to decide if Democrats are right to panic, there is literally nothing in the mass of available public polling to suggest that the Blue Wall is crumbling, or that the Sunbelt swing states are out of reach, or that the race writ large is slipping away from Harris.“ ——Alan
5 Kinds Of American Evangelicals And Their Voting Patterns [Click] “Evangelicals may share the same basic theology, but they are not a monolithic group.” I'm not sure this provides any useful insights, but they are obviously trying. ——Alan
Russian Economy - Malnutrition Hits Mother Russia [Click] I remember when the agricultural collectives in China were discontinued; production was quickly restored and balanced to match demand. Someone made the point that unlike Russia, there were still people in China who remembered how to farm. ——Alan
Do yourself a favor and ignore the polls By Ezra Klein Syndicated colrumnist Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.
Back in 2016, Harry Enten, then at FiveThirtyEight, calculated the final polling error in every presidential election between 1968 and 2012. On average, the polls missed by 2 percentage points. In 2016, an American Association for Public Opinion Research postmortem found that the average error of the national polls was 2.2 points, but the polls of individual states were off by 5.1 points. In 2020, the national polls were off by 4.5 points, and the state-level polls missed, again, by 5.1 points. -- nordy
Last night I dreamed about JD Vance. We were in some hotel where I worked and I was very friendly to him. "Hi, JD." The other night I dreamed I was in some sort of group with DT and he kept interrupting people. I got angry and told him to shut up. I like the second dream better. -- nordy
@nordy & Alan. I live in Red Ohio and in my neighborhood there are 4 Harris/Walz signs. I haven't seen any Trump signs, but my son said he saw ONE that is no longer there.~Susan
We had a very nice time with close friends today, celebrating Canadian Thanksgiving and Indigenous Peoples Day. Then we invited them to our house for American Thanksgiving. 🥧 🍎 🌽
Mud, metal, and crowd dynamics at Agincourt. [Click] Not much new information, but some, and interesting. Clues that the traditional location of the battle is accurate.
ReplyDelete——Alan
Omits the story that the naked, muddy Welsh archers ran out and placed sharpened, muddy, and nearly invisible sticks in front to impede the horses of the French heavy cavalry, then temporarily withdrew. Does include research on the special properties of the local mud and the probable quality of the French men at arms' armor.
Delete-----Alan
Keep Kamala and Carry On [Click] “as we sit here today trying to decide if Democrats are right to panic, there is literally nothing in the mass of available public polling to suggest that the Blue Wall is crumbling, or that the Sunbelt swing states are out of reach, or that the race writ large is slipping away from Harris.“
ReplyDelete——Alan
Hope you're right, Alan. I am lying awake at night worrying about Trump winning and what will happen after. -- nordy
Delete5 Kinds Of American Evangelicals And Their Voting Patterns [Click] “Evangelicals may share the same basic theology, but they are not a monolithic group.” I'm not sure this provides any useful insights, but they are obviously trying.
ReplyDelete——Alan
North Carolina hurricane recovery team relocated amid threat of ‘armed militia’ [Click] “Hurricane Helene federal emergency workers told to evacuate Rutherford county”
ReplyDelete——Alan
DT should be in jail for inciting this!
DeleteRussia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers grows despite western sanctions [Click] “Poorly maintained and uninsured vessels transporting up to 70% of country’s seaborne oil, says report” All the more reason to destroy Russian oil shipping terminals and refineries.
ReplyDelete——Alan
Russian Economy - Malnutrition Hits Mother Russia [Click] I remember when the agricultural collectives in China were discontinued; production was quickly restored and balanced to match demand. Someone made the point that unlike Russia, there were still people in China who remembered how to farm.
ReplyDelete——Alan
Video: Trump pushes out top advisors; campaign in chaos [Click]
ReplyDelete—Alan
Yes, please.
DeleteDo yourself a favor and ignore the polls
ReplyDeleteBy Ezra Klein
Syndicated colrumnist
Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.
Back in 2016, Harry Enten, then at FiveThirtyEight, calculated the final polling error in every presidential election between 1968 and 2012. On average, the polls missed by 2 percentage points. In 2016, an American Association for Public Opinion Research postmortem found that the average error of the national polls was 2.2 points, but the polls of individual states were off by 5.1 points. In 2020, the national polls were off by 4.5 points, and the state-level polls missed, again, by 5.1 points. -- nordy
The mood in the country seems to be leaning toward Harris/Walz. If we didn't have the Electoral College, I wouldn't be much concerned at all.
DeleteLast night I dreamed about JD Vance. We were in some hotel where I worked and I was very friendly to him. "Hi, JD." The other night I dreamed I was in some sort of group with
ReplyDeleteDT and he kept interrupting people. I got angry and told him to shut up. I like the second dream better. -- nordy
Wow, you have a bad case, nordy!
Delete-----Alan
This election can't come too soon.
DeleteAre the Cedars of Lebanon Ancient History’s Most Important Resource? [Click] Nearly destroyed, they have been brought back from the brink.
ReplyDelete——Alan
@nordy & Alan. I live in Red Ohio and in my neighborhood there are 4 Harris/Walz signs. I haven't seen any Trump signs, but my son said he saw ONE that is no longer there.~Susan
ReplyDeleteHereabout presidential race yard signs seem to be non-existent. There are some for local races.
Delete------Alan
No yard signs here. Local races are at a different time of year.
DeleteDoes the Boeing 737 Have ANOTHER Major Flaw!? [Click] Egad.
ReplyDelete——Alan
Video: Verified Neanderthal art, both abstract and figurative, discovered at La Roche Cotard cave. [Click]
ReplyDelete——Alan
Yeah, I saw that last week. Really dumb of her to attempt.
ReplyDeleteWe had a very nice time with close friends today, celebrating Canadian Thanksgiving and Indigenous Peoples Day.
ReplyDeleteThen we invited them to our house for American Thanksgiving. 🥧 🍎 🌽
One wonders how many she got across the border before.
ReplyDelete-----Alan