Okay, my friends, it’s 1 AM on the East Coast. I’ve tried to get as clear a sense as I can of the remaining states or rather the remaining states that will determine the outcome of this election. I’d rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump. [continued behind paywall]
============ Folks, it’s been a bruising, bruising evening so far. What looked like a possible Biden blowout is certainly not turning out that way. It seems like Florida, Texas and probably North Carolina are all going to President Trump. It feels a lot like 2016. But *****I want to stress that in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, most of the Democratic votes don’t seem to have been counted yet.***** At least the particular counties I’m seeing make it look like Biden is in a good position to win these three states. Outside of the Southeast there are many counties across the country where Biden has improved the margins over Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile Biden appears to be winning Arizona, though that’s not quite certain yet. [continued behind paywall] =================
‘It Ain’t Over Until Every Vote Is Counted!’ Biden Bellows
Joe Biden had a simple message to supporters early Wednesday morning, in brief remarks before a sea of cars: “It ain’t over until every vote is counted!”
“We’re going to have to be patient, until the hard work of tallying votes is finished,” he said, noting the tsunami of mail-in votes yet to be counted. It was a markedly different message than President Donald Trump’s, who, right on cue, again falsely said Democrats were trying to “STEAL” the election by counting votes.
Worth re-reading: Beware the 'blue mirage' and the 'red mirage' on election night [Click] Looking at where things stand this morning I can’t help but think of what the Duke of Wellington said of the Battle of Waterloo: “The nearest run thing you ever saw.”
As of mid-morning, Biden has very small leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. If he carries those three states he has exactly 270 Electoral votes. Trump's lead in North Carolina is equally tiny and I see that Georgia hasn't been called. In Illinois Democrats have held one of the two congressional seats they flipped last time. We may not know about the other for two weeks. The Republican has a teeny tiny lead with all precincts reported but late-arriving mail votes could easily change that.
Nate Cohn: “President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.” “So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78% to 21%, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.” ============================ Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:
“Biden’s lead is now currently bigger than Trump’s final 2016 margin in both MI and WI and is projected to grow. Estimates are his PA lead will be bigger as well. If smaller margins were good enough for Trump to collapse the Blue Wall, larger ones [are] certainly OK to rebuild it. ===================== Taegan Goddard:
And while Biden’s Sun Belt path proved tougher than polls sometimes suggested, flipping Arizona was critically important. And Biden could still pick up Georgia as well.
In contrast, Donald Trump’s path seems limited to challenging ballots in the courts.
Per data from NYT: It looks like Biden is going to pick up Nevada. Detroit area votes are swinging Michigan to Biden. NC and GA are still possible for Biden.
GEORGIA Electoral votes: 16 Trump leads Biden, 50.5 percent to 48.3 percent, with 92 percent of the estimated vote in. Keep in mind: Most of the votes yet to be counted are in DeKalb County and other counties in the suburbs of Atlanta that have been breaking heavily for Biden. Mr. Biden would need about two-thirds of the remaining vote to carry the state.
NORTH CAROLINA Electoral votes: 15 Trump leads Biden, 50.1 percent to 48.7 percent, with 95 percent of the estimated vote in. Keep in mind: With most votes now tabulated, Biden would need to win about two-thirds of the remainder to pull ahead.
Some findings from a post-election Public Opinion Strategies (R) survey:
Donald Trump won the 30% who voted on Election Day by 26 points (59% for Trump/33% for Biden). Late deciders broke heavily towards Trump. Among voters who decided in October or later (11% of the electorate), Trump won by 16 points (51% Trump/35% Biden/14% Third Party Candidate). Trump continued to enjoy crushing margins among non-college white men (67% Trump/27% Biden) Joe Biden did win seniors, but by just one point (48% Trump/49% Biden). There were more “shy Trump voters” than “shy Biden voters.” Nineteen percent (19%) of Trump voters said they kept their support for Trump a secret from most of their friends, compared to just 8% of Biden voters. =========================================
“The political polling profession is done. It is devastating for my industry.” — GOP pollster Frank Luntz, quoted by Axios, after serious polling misses in the 2020 election.
Biden On Track for More Votes Than Any Candidate Ever November 4, 2020 at 11:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard
“Joe Biden is projected to receive more votes for president than any other candidate in U.S. election history,” The Week reports. “With many precincts still reporting results, he had already gathered 69,165,955 votes on Wednesday morning, compared to former President Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote total of 69,498,516.” ======================================== The Real Polling Catastrophe November 4, 2020 at 11:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard
David Graham: “Surveys badly missed the results, predicting an easy win for former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democratic pick-up in the Senate, and gains for the party in the House. Instead, the presidential election is still too close to call, Republicans seem poised to hold the Senate, and the Democratic edge in the House is likely to shrink.”
“This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, like FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times’ Upshot, and The Economist’s election unit. They now face serious existential questions. But the greatest problem posed by the polling crisis is not in the presidential election, where the snapshots provided by polling are ultimately measured against an actual tally of votes: As the political cliche goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day.”
“The real catastrophe is that the failure of the polls leaves Americans with no reliable way to understand what we as a people think outside of elections—which in turn threatens our ability to make choices, or to cohere as a nation.”
President Trump’s statement – still underway – is a disgrace. He’s basically making the argument that we’ve heard predicted for weeks: ‘I was winning and then suddenly something happened and now they’re stealing it from me.’ It’s a pretty close paraphrase. He’s now openly calling it a fraud and saying he won.
This statement makes me think that the Trump campaign thinks it’s losing.
That's a very close paraphrase. I heard the statement at around 2:30 A.M. He stated that there at the White House they had the party all ready to begin and then, suddenly, "they" called the election off and took it all away from him. He specifically stated that continuing to count the vote in states where he was ahead constituted fraud. At the same time, he insisted that the count must continue in states where he was behind. Lusty cheers could be heard at just about every comma and full stop. Afterwards the entire CNN on air staff, including (surprisingly) Rick Santorum condemned the statement as shocking, premature and a lie. Once he recovered somewhat, Santorum tried to back pedal, but his heart wasn't in it.
It should be noted that at the president's invitation, the vice president took the mike for a few minutes, during which he spoke in a measured, dignified and wholly presidential manner, affirming that the system was working as t should and that all votes must and would be counted. In short, he totally contradicted what Trump had just said. Moreover, Trump didn't appear to notice. CNN's reporting is that Trump was severely shaken by the early returns, most especially by Fox News calling Arizona for Biden, and this anger and panic probably explains his behavior.
AP has called Michigan for Biden. That means if the NYT is right about Biden carrying Nevada (where 25% of the vote is still out) he is president regardless of what happens in Georgia, NC, or Pennsylvania.
Why Many White Men Love Trump’s Coronavirus Response [Click] I can empathize with the men described. I grew up in a town where, if you had anything going for you, you got up and left (unless your parents had a business you could inherit). As for those who stayed, they were predominantly involved with lumbering or fishing, and those jobs are pretty much done for now. Now, to make your way, you are likely to pander to tourists, which would make you feel little. There’s nothing in peddling trinkets to tourists that compares in terms of personal accomplishment to being a tree topper or risking your life in a small boat on an ocean so cold you will be finished inside an hour if you fall overboard. But don't ask me what to do about it--I'll be damned if I know.
Rick Santorum this afternoon expressed the opinion on CNN that Biden's performance has killed the Left wing of his party. Mind you, this observation was met with derision, but I think it may actually be true. Biden has repudiated everything Bernie stands for. One might argue that this very distancing himself from what people actually want, such as MEDICARE For All, the Green New Deal, etc., explains his underwhelming performance relative to what was expected. Not that I've heard anyone on CNN posit this. I myself think that even if Biden pulls it out, the Democratic Party is fatally damaged and must surely bifurcate. There's no reason for the Left to keep clinging to the New Democrats.
You May Start To Hear More About The Alaska Senate Race [Click] “Alaska is not going to count around 120,000 of its votes — at least a third of the total, comprised of absentee and early votes, among others — until November 10, which will likely eat into Sullivan’s hefty lead right now, with 50 percent reporting.”
"Almost all of Georgia's counties with appreciable outstanding votes are tinted blue on the map. This is why the White House is reportedly nervous about the state."
In the afternoon, the White House launched a law suit demanding the count be halted pending investigation of what all including a Georgia election official who was asked about it agree is in fact a non issue. I'd say Trump is very nervous.
Last night, I succumbed to temptation and turned on CNN (via Sirius XM) instead of music or a book. Only dozed a bit till falling asleep properly some time after 8:00 A.M. Slept a few hours and got up feeling groggy. Turned the radio on again in mid afternoon. By that time things were looking better for Biden. Will probably do much the same tonight.
Having heard some about Biden's plans for taking office, with extensive staffing decisions ("including offices you have never heard of") and executive orders, I should suppose that he and his staff have some time since developed a plan for what to do if the Dems fail to gain control of the Senate.
I'm just back from Hogwart's. Election returns not looking great at this point, but it's not over until it's over.
ReplyDeleteFrom talkingpointsmemo.com:
ReplyDeleteOkay, my friends, it’s 1 AM on the East Coast. I’ve tried to get as clear a sense as I can of the remaining states or rather the remaining states that will determine the outcome of this election. I’d rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump. [continued behind paywall]
============
Folks, it’s been a bruising, bruising evening so far. What looked like a possible Biden blowout is certainly not turning out that way. It seems like Florida, Texas and probably North Carolina are all going to President Trump. It feels a lot like 2016. But *****I want to stress that in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, most of the Democratic votes don’t seem to have been counted yet.***** At least the particular counties I’m seeing make it look like Biden is in a good position to win these three states. Outside of the Southeast there are many counties across the country where Biden has improved the margins over Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile Biden appears to be winning Arizona, though that’s not quite certain yet. [continued behind paywall]
=================
‘It Ain’t Over Until Every Vote Is Counted!’ Biden Bellows
Joe Biden had a simple message to supporters early Wednesday morning, in brief remarks before a sea of cars: “It ain’t over until every vote is counted!”
“We’re going to have to be patient, until the hard work of tallying votes is finished,” he said, noting the tsunami of mail-in votes yet to be counted. It was a markedly different message than President Donald Trump’s, who, right on cue, again falsely said Democrats were trying to “STEAL” the election by counting votes.
AP has just called Arizona for Joe Biden.
ReplyDeleteBiden is now ahead in Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteWorth re-reading:
ReplyDeleteBeware the 'blue mirage' and the 'red mirage' on election night [Click] Looking at where things stand this morning I can’t help but think of what the Duke of Wellington said of the Battle of Waterloo: “The nearest run thing you ever saw.”
As of mid-morning, Biden has very small leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. If he carries those three states he has exactly 270 Electoral votes. Trump's lead in North Carolina is equally tiny and I see that Georgia hasn't been called.
ReplyDeleteIn Illinois Democrats have held one of the two congressional seats they flipped last time. We may not know about the other for two weeks. The Republican has a teeny tiny lead with all precincts reported but late-arriving mail votes could easily change that.
Nate Cohn: “President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.”
ReplyDelete“So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78% to 21%, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.”
============================
Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:
“Biden’s lead is now currently bigger than Trump’s final 2016 margin in both MI and WI and is projected to grow. Estimates are his PA lead will be bigger as well. If smaller margins were good enough for Trump to collapse the Blue Wall, larger ones [are] certainly OK to rebuild it.
=====================
Taegan Goddard:
And while Biden’s Sun Belt path proved tougher than polls sometimes suggested, flipping Arizona was critically important. And Biden could still pick up Georgia as well.
In contrast, Donald Trump’s path seems limited to challenging ballots in the courts.
Per data from NYT: It looks like Biden is going to pick up Nevada. Detroit area votes are swinging Michigan to Biden. NC and GA are still possible for Biden.
ReplyDeletePhysically I seem recovered from my virus this morning; psychologically I am recovered from my gloom of yestere'en.
ReplyDeleteFrom NYT:
ReplyDeleteGEORGIA
Electoral votes: 16
Trump leads Biden, 50.5 percent to 48.3 percent, with 92 percent of the estimated vote in.
Keep in mind: Most of the votes yet to be counted are in DeKalb County and other counties in the suburbs of Atlanta that have been breaking heavily for Biden. Mr. Biden would need about two-thirds of the remaining vote to carry the state.
NORTH CAROLINA
Electoral votes: 15
Trump leads Biden, 50.1 percent to 48.7 percent, with 95 percent of the estimated vote in.
Keep in mind: With most votes now tabulated, Biden would need to win about two-thirds of the remainder to pull ahead.
The Postal Service says it has completed a court-ordered search for possible missing ballots [Click] Detailed statement to come. The problem was that the ballots in question didn’t have their bar codes reported upon delivery.
Senate election results: Republicans hold off Democratic challengers in bid to retain their majority.
ReplyDeleteYep, that's a big one.
DeleteBiden appears to have won Wisconsin, but the race is going to a recount.
ReplyDeleteOHIO: COVID cases, 230,209 and 5,428 deaths.
ReplyDeleteSome findings from a post-election Public Opinion Strategies (R) survey:
ReplyDeleteDonald Trump won the 30% who voted on Election Day by 26 points (59% for Trump/33% for Biden).
Late deciders broke heavily towards Trump. Among voters who decided in October or later (11% of the electorate), Trump won by 16 points (51% Trump/35% Biden/14% Third Party Candidate).
Trump continued to enjoy crushing margins among non-college white men (67% Trump/27% Biden)
Joe Biden did win seniors, but by just one point (48% Trump/49% Biden).
There were more “shy Trump voters” than “shy Biden voters.” Nineteen percent (19%) of Trump voters said they kept their support for Trump a secret from most of their friends, compared to just 8% of Biden voters.
=========================================
“The political polling profession is done. It is devastating for my industry.”
— GOP pollster Frank Luntz, quoted by Axios, after serious polling misses in the 2020 election.
Biden On Track for More Votes Than Any Candidate Ever
ReplyDeleteNovember 4, 2020 at 11:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard
“Joe Biden is projected to receive more votes for president than any other candidate in U.S. election history,” The Week reports.
“With many precincts still reporting results, he had already gathered 69,165,955 votes on Wednesday morning, compared to former President Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote total of 69,498,516.”
========================================
The Real Polling Catastrophe
November 4, 2020 at 11:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard
David Graham: “Surveys badly missed the results, predicting an easy win for former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democratic pick-up in the Senate, and gains for the party in the House. Instead, the presidential election is still too close to call, Republicans seem poised to hold the Senate, and the Democratic edge in the House is likely to shrink.”
“This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, like FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times’ Upshot, and The Economist’s election unit. They now face serious existential questions. But the greatest problem posed by the polling crisis is not in the presidential election, where the snapshots provided by polling are ultimately measured against an actual tally of votes: As the political cliche goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day.”
“The real catastrophe is that the failure of the polls leaves Americans with no reliable way to understand what we as a people think outside of elections—which in turn threatens our ability to make choices, or to cohere as a nation.”
Trump’s Statement
ReplyDeleteJosh Marshall 13 hours ago
President Trump’s statement – still underway – is a disgrace. He’s basically making the argument that we’ve heard predicted for weeks: ‘I was winning and then suddenly something happened and now they’re stealing it from me.’ It’s a pretty close paraphrase.
He’s now openly calling it a fraud and saying he won.
This statement makes me think that the Trump campaign thinks it’s losing.
That's a very close paraphrase. I heard the statement at around 2:30 A.M. He stated that there at the White House they had the party all ready to begin and then, suddenly, "they" called the election off and took it all away from him. He specifically stated that continuing to count the vote in states where he was ahead constituted fraud. At the same time, he insisted that the count must continue in states where he was behind. Lusty cheers could be heard at just about every comma and full stop. Afterwards the entire CNN on air staff, including (surprisingly) Rick Santorum condemned the statement as shocking, premature and a lie. Once he recovered somewhat, Santorum tried to back pedal, but his heart wasn't in it.
DeleteIt should be noted that at the president's invitation, the vice president took the mike for a few minutes, during which he spoke in a measured, dignified and wholly presidential manner, affirming that the system was working as t should and that all votes must and would be counted. In short, he totally contradicted what Trump had just said. Moreover, Trump didn't appear to notice. CNN's reporting is that Trump was severely shaken by the early returns, most especially by Fox News calling Arizona for Biden, and this anger and panic probably explains his behavior.
NBC: Biden projected to win Michigan
ReplyDeleteAP has called Michigan for Biden. That means if the NYT is right about Biden carrying Nevada (where 25% of the vote is still out) he is president regardless of what happens in Georgia, NC, or Pennsylvania.
DeleteWhy Many White Men Love Trump’s Coronavirus Response [Click] I can empathize with the men described. I grew up in a town where, if you had anything going for you, you got up and left (unless your parents had a business you could inherit). As for those who stayed, they were predominantly involved with lumbering or fishing, and those jobs are pretty much done for now. Now, to make your way, you are likely to pander to tourists, which would make you feel little. There’s nothing in peddling trinkets to tourists that compares in terms of personal accomplishment to being a tree topper or risking your life in a small boat on an ocean so cold you will be finished inside an hour if you fall overboard. But don't ask me what to do about it--I'll be damned if I know.
ReplyDeleteBut it seems to me that part of growing up where and when I did involved learning how to see through a bullshitter.
DeleteI figure I will watch the second Harry Potter movie this evening. That's where the Weasleys break him out of Privet Drive.
ReplyDeleteBiden is gaining on Trump in Georgia--0.8% difference now, with 95% counted.
ReplyDeleteJust tightened some more--39,000 vote gap.
DeleteGOP retains Senate seats despite record-breaking Democratic fundraising [Click]
ReplyDeleteVT: 2267 (+29)
ReplyDelete58 deaths (99 days)
309 active cases
Recovered:1870 (+37!)
In Hospital 4 (+1)
Tests 191,087 (+960)
Colorado joins the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact [Click]
ReplyDeleteDemocrats lose ground with Latino voters in Florida and Texas, underscoring outreach missteps. [Click] And not just in those two states. Bernie reached out to Latinos here in California, and had a huge response. Biden seems to have just ignored what Bernie had done for the party.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that Biden even flew over us on the way from Hollywood to Cupertino.
Rick Santorum this afternoon expressed the opinion on CNN that Biden's performance has killed the Left wing of his party. Mind you, this observation was met with derision, but I think it may actually be true. Biden has repudiated everything Bernie stands for. One might argue that this very distancing himself from what people actually want, such as MEDICARE For All, the Green New Deal, etc., explains his underwhelming performance relative to what was expected. Not that I've heard anyone on CNN posit this. I myself think that even if Biden pulls it out, the Democratic Party is fatally damaged and must surely bifurcate. There's no reason for the Left to keep clinging to the New Democrats.
DeleteAre you assuming the Republican Party is going away? The US system of government makes it impossible to have more than two viable parties.
DeleteYou May Start To Hear More About The Alaska Senate Race [Click] “Alaska is not going to count around 120,000 of its votes — at least a third of the total, comprised of absentee and early votes, among others — until November 10, which will likely eat into Sullivan’s hefty lead right now, with 50 percent reporting.”
ReplyDeletePer The Guardian, Biden wins Michigan to reach 264 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 214.
ReplyDeleteNYT has Biden at 253. I'm not sure where the difference is.
DeleteOh, that would be Arizona.
DeleteNevada = 6
DeletePennsylvania = 20
Georgia is turning into a real squeaker; = 13
264 plus all of the above = 303. A nice round number.
Per NYT reporter:
ReplyDelete"Almost all of Georgia's counties with appreciable outstanding votes are tinted blue on the map. This is why the White House is reportedly nervous about the state."
In the afternoon, the White House launched a law suit demanding the count be halted pending investigation of what all including a Georgia election official who was asked about it agree is in fact a non issue. I'd say Trump is very nervous.
DeleteLast night, I succumbed to temptation and turned on CNN (via Sirius XM) instead of music or a book. Only dozed a bit till falling asleep properly some time after 8:00 A.M. Slept a few hours and got up feeling groggy. Turned the radio on again in mid afternoon. By that time things were looking better for Biden. Will probably do much the same tonight.
ReplyDeleteHaving heard some about Biden's plans for taking office, with extensive staffing decisions ("including offices you have never heard of") and executive orders, I should suppose that he and his staff have some time since developed a plan for what to do if the Dems fail to gain control of the Senate.
ReplyDeleteAnd now back to Privet Drive.