Sunday, November 01, 2020

2: TWO!! (NOVEMBER AT LAST!!)



 

38 comments:

  1. Well, tonight is the first time in my entire life that the moon is full on Hallowe'en, and it's a BLUE MOON into the bargain!

    I hope a *Blue* Moon is an omen.

    Also, it is only every 6-7 years or so that All Saints actually falls on a Sunday! Very cool.

    ReplyDelete
  2. On October 30th, Madame Tussauds waxwork museum in Berlin threw its statue of Trump into a dumpster in preparation for a new president.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Atlantic America’s Poor Health Is an Invitation to Tyranny. The lack of universal care has made the U.S. more vulnerable to Trump’s demagogic appeals. [Click] Yep. Otto von Bismarck had it right— almost one hundred forty years ago: [Click] The real grievance of the worker is the insecurity of his existence; he is not sure that he will always have work, he is not sure that if he will always be healthy, and he foresees that he will one day be old and unfit to work. If he falls into poverty, even if only through a prolonged illness, he is then completely helpless, left to his own devices, and society does not currently recognize any real obligation toward him beyond the usual help for the poor, even if he has been working all the time ever so faithfully and diligently. The usual help for the poor, however, leaves a lot to be desired, especially in large cities, where it is very much worse than in the country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Add that nowadays it is no longer expected that people will tend their parents in old age.

      Delete
  4. Replies
    1. Sure hope she's got it right--and expect that she has. Now off to the Land of Nod.

      Delete
  5. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump among Latino voters by about a 2-1 margin days before the presidential election, 62% to 29%, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll. [Click] There is no indication in the story that they make any distinction among various groups of Latinos, other than men and women.


    New Battleground State Polls
    November 1, 2020 at 5:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard

    From New York Times/Siena:
    ARIZONA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
    FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 44%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
    WISCONSIN: Biden 52%, Trump 41%

    From ABC News-Washington Post:
    FLORIDA: Trump 50%, Biden 48%
    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

    From EPIC-MRA:
    MICHIGAN: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

    From St. Pete Polls:
    FLORIDA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%

    From RMG Research:
    FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 47%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More Battleground State Polls
      November 1, 2020 at 11:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard

      From Emerson College:

      IOWA: Trump 49%, Biden 47%
      MICHIGAN: Biden 52%, Trump 46%
      OHIO: Biden 50%, Trump 49%

      Delete

  6. Various polls via talkingpointsmemo.com

    Other results from the NYT poll:
    Biden up six in Arizona (FiveThirtyEight average has Biden up by 3.4 points)
    Biden up 11 in Wisconsin (FiveThirtyEight average has Biden up by 8.7 points)

    Other results from the Emerson poll:
    Biden up seven in Michigan (FiveThirtyEight average has Biden up by 8.5 points)
    Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is up five against Republican challenger John James in a critical Democratic hold
    Biden up one in Ohio (FiveThirtyEight average has Trump up by 0.2 points)
    ===========================
    Biden Retains Pennsylvania Lead

    In the ABC/Washington Post and NYT/Siena polls, the former Vice President continues to enjoy a mid-single-digits lead.

    ABC has him up seven, and NYT has him up six.

    FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by 4.9 in the aggregate in the state.
    ===========================
    Florida:

    The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Trump up by two, within the poll’s margin of error.

    And the New York Times/Siena poll shows Biden up three, also within the margin of error.

    Overall, FiveThirtyEight shows Biden up by 1.9 points.
    =============================
    Greg Sargent (ThePlumLineGS)
    Striking finding from NYT/Siena: Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.

    Here are Biden's leads, followed by their vote share:

    WI +19 (11%)
    FL +17 (18%)
    PA +12 (18%)
    AZ +7 (22%)
    ===============================

    I am sending a photo of a hilarious anti-Trump sign to Cat and listener in hopes it will be posted!

    —Alan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, Alan, I only just now saw your post. The photo you sent has been added to the front page.

      Delete
    2. I immediately thought of setting up a Trump Sandwich wagon across the street from one of his hotels. . .

      Delete
    3. Ah I didn't realise you needed it posted today. I was going to post it on Tuesday or Wednesday (as we await returns). But this is fun too! :-)

      Delete
    4. Didn't need it posted today, but no objection whatsoever.

      Delete
  7. OHIO; COVID cases 219,000 and 5,303 deaths.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Trump Plans to Declare Victory on Election Night [Click] “For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.” [Emphasis added.]

    ===========================
    Trump’s Main Goal Is to Not Lose on Election Day
    November 1, 2020 at 2:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

    As I mentioned to Political Wire members two weeks ago, President Trump’s main goal is to not lose the election on Tuesday night. There’s more confirmation of this strategy in the New York Times: “Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after.” Now we’re down to just initial returns from a single state? Sounds far fetched.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Axios: A safe, sane way to navigate election night — and beyond. [Click] “Brace yourself for 78 days of drama and turmoil from Nov. 4 through the inauguration. No one working for Trump or Joe Biden thinks the post-election period will be remotely normal. Even if you get the result you want, anticipate months of wild maneuvering and protests. Here, too, keep it in perspective and don’t make matters worse by sharing or overreacting to false or misleading reports. What's next: The nation is headed into a firestorm. There's no way it's orderly or normal, or even necessarily over when it seems over. All we can do is be smart about what’s to come, and wise in our responses.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Biden Continues to Focus on the Core Battleground States [Click] “Still, Biden’s perpetually cautious team has dedicated the overwhelming bulk of its resources to a trifecta of former “blue wall” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and Sun Belt states — Arizona, Florida and North Carolina — determined not to repeat their party’s mistakes of four years ago.”

    “There’s no extra credit in getting beyond 270,” said Jenn Ridder, the Biden campaign’s national states director. “That doesn’t make us win more. We need to get to 270.”

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, no, not really. 270is the bare minimum. Ideally, they need as much more than that as they can possibly get to drive the point home to Trump and his supporters that he lost. The greater Biden's margin of victory, the more unassailable. I mean, like, duh! How bright do you have to be to figure that out? Oh, wait, I forgot. We're dealing with the Democratic Party. :P

      Delete
  11. Jennifer Rubin: Early voting succeeded beyond our wildest expectations [Click] Quotes a nice little point made by Nate Silver, which should be obvious to all by now: by blocking counting of late ballots, right-wingers block disproportionate numbers of Republican votes.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I can't recall where I read it, or find the link in a browser history, but there was an interesting opinion piece today. The thesis was that the US democracy was set up long before any other modern democracy, and inevitably things have happened that the framers did not anticipate. The writer suggested that we should learn from younger democracies, and two lessons that stand out are (1) tenure or age limits for the constitutional court, and (2) a national elections administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Growth, change, development, these keep a society alive. If it were up to originalists (if that's the term) like Amy Barrett, the Constitution and the society it underpins would be a fossil. The irony is, that's exactly what the framers didn't want.

      Delete
  13. I wonder where Biden will be Election evening. Scranton would make sense.

    ReplyDelete
  14. It's going to start snowing here shortly and we'll have two rounds of it between now and midday on Election Day...something like 4-7" or more, and up to 2 feet of snow higher up. My appt for snow tires is Tuesday, so we dropped off my car today. Now we won't have to drive in snow until the storms are past and only to go pick it up. Looking forward to welcoming snowflakes home again!! ❄️ ☃️ ❄️

    ReplyDelete